Wahome Thuku: Opposition can produce 10 presidential candidates and beat Ruto
By David Nthua, July 21, 2026Lawyer and political analyst Wahome Thuku has rejected calls for the opposition to field one presidential candidate against President William Ruto in 2027.
In a Facebook statement on Monday, July 20, 2026, Thuku argued that voters can rally behind one preferred candidate even when presented with more than 10 choices. He drew his conclusion from the Ol Kalou by-election.
“Another milestone lesson from Ol Kalou, we don’t need a united opposition presidential candidate. I have said this before,” Thuku wrote.
“All the 10-plus candidates can be on the ballot paper, and one candidate can still get over 90 per cent of the votes. We should not treat voters like a herd of sheep,” he added.
Thuku said reducing the number of candidates would unfairly restrict voter choice.
“We don’t need to force voters to vote in a certain way by ensuring there aren’t many candidates available for them.
Neither do we have to force candidates out just to ensure they are not available on the ballot,” he stated.
Is Wahome Thuku’s proposal possible?
Mathematically, Thuku’s proposal is possible. The number of candidates does not determine how voters distribute their votes.
United Democratic Alliance candidate Samuel Muchina Nyagah received 13.2 per cent. The remaining seven candidates shared less than one per cent.
However, a constituency by-election is different from a national presidential contest. Ol Kalou voters were choosing a local representative within one political environment.
An international example came from Egypt in 2005. The presidential election attracted 10 candidates. Hosni Mubarak officially received 88.57 per cent, while his closest challenger received 7.58 per cent.
That result came close to Thuku’s 90 per cent scenario. However, turnout stood at only 22.95 per cent. The contest also faced serious criticism over restrictions, intimidation and its overall credibility.
It proves the arithmetic. It does not provide a strong model for a competitive Kenyan election.
When many candidates force a runoff
Kenya’s 1997 presidential election shows the opposite outcome. Fifteen candidates contested, splitting the national vote.
Daniel arap Moi won with 40.4 per cent. Mwai Kibaki received about 30.9 per cent, while Raila Odinga secured 10.8 per cent. The remaining vote was distributed among other candidates.
Moi was declared winner because Kenya did not then have the current 50 per cent-plus-one requirement.
Ukraine presented a clearer runoff example in 2019. The election attracted 39 presidential candidates.
Volodymyr Zelensky received about 30 per cent in the first round. Petro Poroshenko secured 15.95 per cent.
Neither crossed 50 per cent. They proceeded to a runoff, where Zelensky won with 73.22 per cent.
Tunisia’s 2019 election had 26 candidates. Kais Saied led with only 18.4 per cent, while Nabil Karoui received 15.6 per cent. A runoff followed, and Saied eventually won with 72.71 per cent.
Under Article 138 of Kenya’s Constitution, a candidate must secure more than half the national vote and at least 25 per cent in more than half the counties.
Thuku is therefore correct that 10 opposition candidates can appear on the ballot without guaranteeing Ruto victory.
However, one opposition candidate must still cross the constitutional threshold. If opposition support is distributed widely, the result will be a runoff, not a combined opposition victory.