Nairobi gubernatorial hopeful Tony Gachoka has opined that a united opposition victory in the upcoming Ol Kalou by-election could significantly weaken Deputy President Kithure Kindiki’s chances of retaining his position after the 2027 General Election.

Speaking during an interview with a local radio station on Wednesday, July 8, 2026, the outspoken political commentator expressed confidence in the United Opposition’s campaign machinery, saying it is well-positioned to win the mini-poll slated for July 16, 2026.

Gachoka argued that the by-election carries enormous political significance for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), insisting that a defeat would have far-reaching consequences for the party’s leadership.

“The stakes are very high. If UDA loses the Ol Kalou by-election, Kindiki’s deputy president slot will be at risk,” Gachoka said.

He maintained that the outcome of the by-election will be viewed as a key test of the UDA’s popularity ahead of the 2027 General Election, with both the ruling party and the United Opposition expected to invest heavily in the contest.

Alai expressed confidence in UDA

On the other side, Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai argued that if President William Ruto and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) win the upcoming Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, the president will be on course to secure 60 per cent of the Mt Kenya vote in the 2027 general election.

Speaking during an interview on a local radio station on Monday, July 6, 2026, Alai said the by-election would serve as a litmus test of Ruto’s political strength in the vote-rich region.

“If Ruto wins the Ol Kalou by-election, he will get over 60 per cent of Mt Kenya votes in 2027,” Alai stated.

He cited the recent Mbeere North by-election, which followed the appointment of former area MP Geoffrey Ruku as cabinet secretary, replacing former Attorney General Justin Muturi.

Mbeere North by-election

According to Alai, President Ruto deliberately orchestrated the vacancy in the Mbeere North parliamentary seat to showcase his political might in the Mt Kenya region after the opposition advanced the narrative that his influence in the region had diminished and that he would struggle to command significant support.

He argued that the UDA victory in the by-election disproved those claims and demonstrated that the president continues to enjoy considerable backing in the region.