Peter Salasya, Mumias East MP, has forecast a decisive victory for DAP-K candidate Seth Kuka Panyako in the November 27, 2025, Malava Constituency by-election.

In a post on X on September 28, Salasya predicted, “Hon. Seth Kuka Panyako will win with 20,000 votes with DAP. David Ndakwa will follow second with 12,000 votes with UDA. Edgar Busiega Mwanga will be number three with 5,000 votes with DCP.”

The pronouncement comes after the death of late MP Moses Malulu Injendi, setting the stage for a closely watched race.

Campaign efforts

Salasya announced plans to personally oversee the campaign, stating, “I’m going to camp in the constituency of Malava from November 1 to November 27. I must defeat Cleo Malala’s candidate, DCP and the candidate of Governor Fernandes of UDA. Siasa ya Malava itakuwa tamu sana.”

This comes after DAP-K supporters rejected Malala’s call to withdraw the Malava by-election candidate.

His hands-on approach highlights a strategy focused on grassroots mobilisation, aiming to strengthen Panyako’s chances against rivals backed by prominent political figures in the region.

Regional backing and political dynamics

The DAP-K candidate has received support from the Western Professional Caucus and the Western Community Stakeholders Forum (WCSF). WCSF Secretary General Daniel Mukhonge said the by-election is a “test run for voters to rethink their political unity,” urging residents of Malava, Kisa East, and Kabuchai to reject Kenya Kwanza and ODM candidates.

He emphasised DAP-K as the “only Luhya-led parliamentary political party of the moment” and described Malava as an opportunity to shift local political allegiance.

The contest is further complicated by shifting alliances. DCP’s Edgar Busiega, who recently defected from ANC, also intensifies competition.

Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa has endorsed UDA’s David Ndakwa, aligning with a broader coalition strategy.

Ndakwa has promised to continue the late Malulu’s development agenda. Internal ODM disputes, with seven of ten county MPs opposing Barasa’s leadership, and DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa’s claim that Panyako enjoys a double-digit lead, add to the uncertainty.