Paul Mwangi: Why Raila was not going to vie in 2027 election
By Mabonga Makhanu, March 29, 2026Paul Mwangi, a political analyst and legal advisor to the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, has come out to state that the late leader had already shown signs of not wanting to vie for the presidency in 2027.
Speaking during an interview with a local radio station on March 29, 2026, the seasoned lawyer stated that after the 2022 general elections, Raila Odinga began to behave in ways that suggested he would not contest for the presidency again.
Having been close to Raila for a long time, Paul Mwangi noted that there were patterns and signs the late leader would always display after every electoral defeat, which typically indicated his readiness to prepare for the next elections. However, after 2022, this was not the case.
“After the last election he behaved in a way that suggested he would not run again. In very many ways, there are things you could expect him to do at a particular time, and he’s not doing them the way you expect him to start speaking; he’s not.”
“There are patterns of things he will say that show you that he’s thinking this in a more long-term view and that he’s not factoring himself as a candidate in the next election.”
Raila Ruto’s relationship
Referencing the relationship Raila had begun to develop with the current administration, Mwangi stated that Raila was not a person who could forge friendships and then fight the same person the next day.
The way he was opening up to President Ruto. According to Mwangi, he did not suggest that in 2027 he would compete against him or overturn their friendship to fight him.
“And even in terms of interaction Raila could be a very emotional person and therefore he is not the kind of person who get very close to you and then fight you tomorrow so if you now check the kind of relationship he was already building with President Ruto and how they were talking and his own reactions to the things they were doing, you start having the feeling he does not intend to fight this guy but he would not be opening himself up to him that way.”
As his lawyer, Paul Mwangi, explained, anytime Raila intended to run for office, he would usually instruct him to work on certain documents, such as coalition names, and would begin positioning himself politically among the masses. This time, however, it was not the case; in every political forum, according to Mwangi, he became passive.
Mwangi noted that it was always observable, whereas Raila, who had lost five previous elections, would consistently prepare and energise himself for the next election; after 2022, he slowed down, unlike in the past.
Raila’s past political moves
Mwangi further stated that, unlike after previous elections, Raila never left his supporters idle.
He would always find ways to keep them politically engaged—for instance, in 2013, one year after the elections, he launched the “Okoa Kenya” initiative to keep his followers active.
In 2018, he championed the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI). But after 2022, he had no such engagement, even though he knew his constituencies were growing politically cold, and yet he was doing nothing to rejuvenate them.
Paul Mwangi finalised by saying that these were the signals he would read from his late boss to determine what Raila was likely to do next.