Orengo explains why Ruto may cling to power even if he loses 2027 contest
By Aloys Michael, April 25, 2026Siaya Governor James Orengo has warned that President William Ruto could attempt to cling to power even if he loses the 2027 general election, citing what he described as growing authoritarian tendencies and regional political influences.
Speaking in an interview on Herman Manyora’s Podcast on Friday, April 24, 2026, Orengo said that while an outright electoral victory for Ruto may be difficult due to shifting voter dynamics, the real concern lies in how power could be retained outside the ballot.
“I think it is a possibility, even in terms of rigging, I don’t see the pathway to victory for him, because the demographics completely work against him,” he said.
According to Orengo, the president has already lost significant political ground in key regions, particularly in Mount Kenya, which played a decisive role in the 2022 election.
“For example, he has lost in Central Kenya. I can’t see where he can get those votes,” he said, arguing that this explains why Ruto is clinging, in some fashion, to Mount Kenya.
Despite this, Orengo believes the opposition still faces serious structural and political challenges, pointing to broader regional dynamics, suggesting that East Africa’s political environment could influence Kenya’s democratic trajectory.
“The opposition to his rule will be affected largely because of the neighbourhood we live in,” he noted, referencing concerns about electoral processes in neighbouring Tanzania.
Drawing a comparison, Orengo questioned whether similar electoral irregularities could occur in Kenya.
“We are in a neighbourhood, can he do that to us? Where things like that can happen?” he posed.
“But I think Kenyans cannot allow what happened to Tanzania to happen. Kenya is a different problem. It’s not possible.”
Even so, Orengo did not dismiss the risk of instability. He warned that the 2027 election could be highly contentious, particularly given what he described as the concentration of power in the presidency.
“There is hope for 2027, but it’s not going to be easy. It may be bloody, regrettably. When you have somebody with that type of authority and power, he is more of a monarch as against a democratically elected leader,” he said.
He further claimed that there has been a propensity by the current administration to involve security forces in political matters, raising fears about how disputes could be handled during and after the election.
“We have seen the propensity for him to use the military,” Orengo claimed, warning that such actions could undermine democratic norms.
In addition, Orengo raised concerns about the integrity of the electoral process itself, pointing to reported irregularities in voter registration and identification issuance.
“He is playing games also on the registration of voters and the issuance of IDs. Certain strangers are being brought in,” he said, though he did not provide specific evidence.
Still, Orengo maintained that a decisive voter turnout could limit the effectiveness of any manipulation. Reflecting on past elections, he noted that overwhelming public support can be difficult to overturn.
“If you have a big majority voting against, like in 2002 or 2003, the win was so solid that it was very difficult to do anything about,” he said.
Orengo Ruto’s headache?
This comes even as a fresh political contest is taking shape in the opposition strongholds, with Orengo emerging as a key figure challenging Ruto’s growing influence within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) base.
Allies of President Ruto have now warned against what they describe as Orengo’s new revolution, urging residents of the Nyanza region to remain aligned with the government under the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
The pushback comes as Orengo positions himself at the centre of the Linda Mwananchi movement, a political formation seeking to make President Ruto a one-term leader ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The movement is also openly opposed to a faction within ODM that supports working with the government.
That rival faction is led by Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, who took over party leadership following the death of Raila Odinga in October 2025. Since then, ODM has been split into two camps: one backing President Ruto’s re-election bid, and another pushing for his removal from power.
Orengo’s critics argue that his political activism risks pushing the region back into opposition politics, potentially denying it the benefits of being aligned with the government.
“I want to caution those telling this community about a revolution. There is a debate going on in this part of the country. Orengo has been talking about revolution. And you know, Orengo has been talking about revolution from Jomo Kenyatta’s time up to now. And there is our brother Oburu, who is saying, ‘We want power to transform our people.’ So, I want to plead with you, go for power any day. Don’t be lied to about opposition,” Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot said.
Cheruiyot’s remarks follow growing concern within government ranks that Orengo’s message could resonate deeply in ODM strongholds, particularly in Luo Nyanza, where political loyalty has historically been firm but is now increasingly contested.
Broad-based quagmire?
At the centre of the dispute is the question of whether ODM should remain part of a broad-based government arrangement initiated by Raila before his death. Supporters of this arrangement argue it was meant to preserve party unity and ensure access to power.
However, Orengo’s camp disputes the legitimacy of that cooperation.
“These individuals actually negotiated positions for themselves. It has no instrument. It has no legal foundation. There is no agreement. There is nothing. Raila signed, like he signed the MOU, that there’s an arrangement in which ODM is participating in a broad-based government. This was a measure taken by Raila to make sure that unity in the party was maintained so that those who had negotiated for themselves to go into government would not be seen to be tearing the party apart,” Orengo said.