Political analyst Herman Manyora says the possibility of Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja winning the city gubernatorial seat remains high.

While speaking on his YouTube channel during his daily analysis on Wednesday, May 20, 2026, the outspoken analyst stated that, despite Sakaja’s prospects of winning the gubernatorial seat in 2027 appearing slim, he cannot be wished away politically.

“I’m seeing that I’m saying that it will be good not to allow what is so-called competition to mess them up in the position, because unlike you people, I don’t dismiss Sakaja,” Manyora said.

According to Manyora, during the five years Sakaja has been at the helm of the city’s leadership, he has built many friendships and alliances with people who will be willing to support him in 2027. He added that Sakaja might also benefit from President William Ruto’s support across the city, which could significantly boost his bid.

“Look, Sakaja has been governor; he will have been governor for five years. You think he has not made friends? You think they are not sympathisers?” he posed.

The analyst continued by stating that the only way the opposition can counter Sakaja is by presenting a strong candidate to challenge him. According to Manyora, Sakaja enjoys the power of incumbency and could already be ahead by about 35 per cent.

He further stated that the only viable candidate with the capacity to defeat Sakaja is Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, especially with strong support from former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. According to Manyora, this combination could greatly reduce Sakaja’s chances of clinching the Nairobi seat.

How to defeat Sakaja

He added that apart from having a formidable opposition candidate, defeating Sakaja would require a clear and united strategy from the opposition.

This comes at a time when the battle for the Nairobi gubernatorial seat is intensifying day by day, with Babu Owino expressing willingness to work with Gachagua ahead of the 2027 general election.

Sakaja, on the other hand, has remained adamant that he will be on the ballot in 2027 and that his chances of winning are still high.

Zoning talks in Nairobi

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, on the other hand, has stated that they will not gamble with the Nairobi gubernatorial seat.

He said that the United Opposition will be allowed to have friendly contests in other counties, but not in Nairobi and Mombasa. He stated that they will sit down and agree on which party will field a candidate in the city.