Political analyst Herman Manyora has argued that the political mood in the Luo Nyanza region is gradually shifting in favour of the Linda Mwananchi faction led by Siaya Governor James Orengo and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.

Speaking during an interview with a local media station on Monday, July 27, 2026, Manyora claimed that although Luo Nyanza remains politically divided, the balance of support is increasingly tilting towards Orengo’s camp.

According to the political analyst, one faction remains loyal to ODM leader Oburu Oginga, Suna East Member of Parliament Junet Mohamed, and other leaders who have aligned themselves with President William Ruto.

However, he said another group believes the current political direction is not working for the region and has instead thrown its weight behind Orengo and the Linda Mwananchi movement.

“The state of politics in Luo Nyanza is that it is divided. Some follow the political direction of ODM leader Oburu Odinga and Junet Mohamed, who are aligned with President William Ruto,” he said.

“However, there are also those who believe things are not right, and they appear to be siding with James Orengo and Edwin Sifuna under the Linda Mwananchi movement. Initially, that group may have been smaller, but looking at the way things are unfolding, I believe support in Luo Nyanza will gradually shift towards Orengo’s side.”

Linda Mwananchi’s growth

Manyora argued that while Orengo’s faction may not have initially enjoyed the larger share of support, the political tide is steadily changing in its favour.

He pointed to Orengo’s growing acceptance across Luo Nyanza, noting that there was a time when the Siaya governor struggled to tour parts of the region because of hostility from his political opponents. According to Manyora, attempts to disrupt or intimidate the governor have since reduced as his popularity continues to rise.

Ruto’s inroads in Nyanza

The analyst further claimed that leaders allied with the pro-government faction are becoming increasingly worried about their political future amid speculation that President William Ruto’s camp could field candidates against established politicians aligned with Oburu Odinga’s camp, including Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga.

According to Manyora, such political contests would force those leaders to focus on defending their own seats, giving Orengo and his allies more room to consolidate support across the region.

He maintained that if the current political trends continue, the larger share of votes from Luo Nyanza is likely to shift towards the Orengo-led faction and the Linda Mwananchi movement.

This comes days after Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna dismissed the broad-based government’s influence in Luo Nyanza, insisting that the Linda Mwananchi movement enjoys greater popularity in the region than President William Ruto.

Speaking during an interview with local media stations on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, the outspoken former Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) secretary-general argued that the region has rejected the “Tutam” mantra and instead embraces the “Wantam” slogan.

Linda Mwananchi’s inroads in Nyanza

Sifuna defended the growing influence of the Linda Mwananchi movement, citing the massive crowds that attended its recent rally in Kisumu.

He maintained that the turnout was organic and demonstrated that residents of Luo Nyanza are firmly behind the movement and do not want President Ruto to secure a second term.

“Hata uko Luo Nyanza, you will be very surprised; hakuna mtashangaa sana. Hakuna vile Ruto atashinda linda mwanachi huko Luo Nyanza; hiyo mambo ya tutam ni propaganda,” Sifuna argued.