Seasoned political analyst Herman Manyora has come out to warn united opposition leaders against relying on signed pre-election Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs).

While speaking during an interview on his channel on Friday, September 13, 2025, Manyora stated that most pre-election MOUs do not stand the test of time.

According to him, signing an MoU by coalition principals before elections does not mean it will be followed to the letter, nor does it guarantee unity.

He noted that the united opposition, which has now resorted to drafting its own agreement, should not assume that signing will keep them together until the end.

He cited the pre-election agreement signed by President William Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza principals, in which Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula were promised 30 per cent of government positions, something that, to date, has not been delivered.

Manyora added that these agreements or contracts can easily be broken or ignored by coalition leaders once they assume power. He gave the example of former President Mwai Kibaki, who in 2002 ignored the coalition agreement he had signed with his partners immediately after taking office.

He further cautioned the united opposition that believing a coalition agreement or MOU guarantees unity is misguided.

 “That thinking is what will make the coalition get nowhere. The belief that you have to reduce an agreement to something called an MoU is nonsensical,” he remarked.

What to focus on

According to Manyora, the only thing that can hold the united opposition together is trust, and trust cannot be achieved through signing an MOU but must be built among coalition leaders.

He emphasised that beyond trust, the coalition should bring together the best brains within their ranks to develop a strong framework and structures that can sustain togetherness and anchor that trust.

 “One is trust. You can’t write down trust; you have to build it among yourselves. The second thing is to bring together the best minds you can get to work out structures that can sustain togetherness and on which trust can rest,” he explained.

This comes at a time when the united opposition leaders have been holding a series of meetings to shape the coalition’s way forward and even settling on the name of the coalition.