Manyora: DP candidate will win Mbeere North seat unless election is rigged
By Mabonga Makhanu, November 20, 2025Seasoned political analyst Herman Manyora has stated that it can only take the state to rig for the Democratic Party (DP) candidate Newton Karish to lose in the upcoming Mbere North elections.
While speaking on his channel, Manyora expressed strong confidence in Rigathi Gachagua’s preferred candidate, Newton Karish. He maintained that only state interference could cause the musician-turned-politician to lose in the November 27 by-election.
He argued that the DP candidate remains firmly positioned to win unless the exercise is manipulated against him, insisting that such a move would carry significant political implications. Manyora added that this is why the opposition must approach the contest with caution.
“The DP candidate will win the election, unless the election is massively rigged. You have to rig for Newton Karish to lose, but it will make a statement. Will send a statement, and this is why the opposition ought to be very careful,” Manyora stated.
According to him, the challenge for the united opposition goes beyond simply winning. He said their candidates in both the Malava and Mbeere North areas, considered strongholds, must secure commanding margins to demonstrate strength ahead of the 2027 contest against President Ruto.
Manyora noted that a 60 per cent victory in Mbeere North for the united opposition would paradoxically favour the president, since the area is associated with Gachagua. He drew a similar comparison with Malava, where Democratic Action Party candidate Seth Panyako is set to face UDA’s David Ndakwa.
Narrow wins
He stressed that the opposition needs margins of 80 or even 90 per cent to send a message of dominance. Narrow wins, he warned, would signal weakness. A result of 60 or 65 per cent for the opposition in Mbeere North should be a cause for concern, as such numbers would fall short of expectations in a region where they should sweep almost all votes.
Manyora insisted that these constituencies should deliver overwhelming results if the opposition wants to prove it has the numbers, comparing anything less to barely scratching the surface. For him, the opposition needs a decisive victory to demonstrate that it can challenge and defeat President Ruto in a national contest.
He cautioned that the opposition must remain alert, saying these by-elections offer a preview of the tactics they might face in 2027. He argued that if they struggle to manage the political games common in local races, it will be far more difficult when the stakes rise in the general election.
There comes a time when the former deputy president, Rigathi Gachagua, has decided to pitch camps in Mbeere North until his candidate, Karish, carries the day on November 27. He has been moving from house to house with the aim of popularising his candidate’s bid.