Kipruto Kirwa: ODM risks collapse without Raila
By Kiprono Keileb, August 4, 2025Former Agriculture Minister Kipruto Kirwa has warned that ODM risks shrinking by over half if party leader Raila Odinga does not contest the 2027 presidential election or present a strong candidate under the ODM banner.
Speaking on a local political talk show on Monday, August 4, 2025, Kirwa said ODM’s survival hinges heavily on Raila’s presence and influence, noting that the party’s structure is largely anchored on personality-driven politics and ethnic coalitions.
“Political parties are either grafted on the coalition of tribes or personalities. ODM without Raila will be smaller than what it is today,” he said.
Kirwa pointed out that while ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna is trying to assert himself as the party’s voice, internal dynamics and tribal dominance within the party are undermining that effort.
“Certain tribes believe they own ODM more than others,” Kirwa said, warning that this imbalance is fueling discontent among younger leaders in the party, such as Babu Owino and Caleb Amisi.
According to Kirwa, the two youthful legislators, among others, are growing increasingly uneasy with the party’s current direction but are holding back criticism out of respect for Raila.
“They have looked the other way round and believe Raila will use his wisdom either to bolt out of the coalition or present himself as the candidate,” he said.
Kirwa painted a bleak picture of ODM’s electoral future without Raila, predicting mass defections and the party’s collapse in key regions.
“Unless William Ruto is going to defect to ODM, the party will shrink by over 50%, it will remain in parts of Nyanza but disappear almost totally in Western, except maybe one or two counties. The Maa community is also likely to move out,” he warned.
The veteran politician also raised eyebrows by suggesting there may be a tacit understanding between Raila and President Ruto.
“I feel Raila is in a Catch-22 situation. Possibly, there is a deal and understanding between him and William Ruto,” he said.
Despite the uncertainty, Kirwa acknowledged Raila’s political instincts, saying he may not allow ODM to collapse on his watch.
“He is a political animal. He will not want to see ODM go down in his lifetime,” he said.
Kirwa’s comments come at a time when ODM faces internal pressure, generational shifts, and coalition fatigue, as the countdown to 2027 begins.