Kasmuel McOure says ethnic politics will decide next election
By Mustafa Juma, March 28, 2026Political activist Kasmuel McOure has sparked fresh debate on Kenya’s electoral future, warning that ethnic dynamics, not policy issues, will once again play a decisive role in the next General Election.
Taking to his official X account on Saturday, March 28, 2026, McOure argued that despite growing calls for issue-based politics, the country remains firmly anchored in identity-driven voting patterns, coalition-building, and the influence of money.
said expectations that Kenya could transition to issue-based politics within a single electoral cycle are unrealistic.
“Kenya will not outgrow the ethnic logic that has long defined her politics in the 500 days remaining before the next General Election. This is a reality we must acknowledge,” he stated.
According to him, meaningful political transformation is gradual and often unfolds over several election cycles as generational shifts occur and dominant political actors exit the scene.
“For all our aspirations toward issue-based politics, electoral outcomes in Kenya are still shaped by identity, coalition-building, and the influence of money. These are not conditions that can be wished away in a single cycle. Meaningful political transitions take time, often unfolding over multiple elections as demographics shift and dominant actors exit the stage. This is the terrain on which the next election will be fought,” he stated.
Ruto’s winning chances
Within this political framework, McOure assessed President William Ruto as entering the next election from a position of strength but cautioned that incumbency alone is not enough to secure public support.
He acknowledged several reform efforts under the current administration, including initiatives tied to a 10-point agenda focusing on devolution, digital economy growth, infrastructure development, and compensation for victims of police brutality.
However, he emphasised that many Kenyans continue to grapple with the high cost of living, a factor he described as central to everyday experience.
This, he said, creates a disconnect between macroeconomic policy direction and citizens’ lived realities.
“Within it, William Ruto enters as the incumbent, with both the advantages and burdens that entails. He remains in a strong position for re-election, but incumbency alone is not a sufficient case for support. It must be matched with delivery and a credible path forward,” McOure wrote on X.
“There have been several successful attempts at reform, including those articulated in the 10-point agenda MoU, particularly in strengthening devolution, compensating victims of police brutality, and advancing the digital economy, infrastructure, and other productive sectors. Yet for many Kenyans, the high cost of living continues to define daily experience. That tension between policy and reality, between macroeconomic direction and lived microeconomic experience, cannot be ignored.”
Strategic youth engagement
McOure further directed a significant part of his message to young people, urging them to adopt a more strategic approach to politics rather than outright rejection of existing power structures.
He added that youth support should not be unconditional but tied to clear demands around employment, accountability, education, and inclusion.
“For young people, this moment demands strategic engagement. It is not enough to reject the present or romanticise untested alternatives. Power must be engaged where it exists and shaped through clear, negotiated demands,” he stated.
“Our support, if it is to be given, must be conditional, tied to jobs, accountability, education, and genuine inclusion.”
At the same time, McOure cautioned against a regression into more rigid and divisive political formations, warning that such approaches could deepen existing fault lines.
He cited emerging movements that risk entrenching narrow identity politics, urging Kenyans to resist trajectories that could undermine national cohesion.
Support for Ruto
McOure’s remarks come hours after he declared that he will campaign actively for President Ruto’s second term in office.
In a social‑media post on Saturday, March 28, 2026, addressed “To the church in Kavirondo”, McOure said:
“I am an avid TUTAM supporter and will go out of my way to campaign for President William Ruto’s re-election within ODM and the Broad‑Based Youth Front.” He then offered an analysis of what he calls “tribelessness” in youth politics.
McOure argued that youth movements are no longer just about rallies and slogans. He said effective mobilisation also involves organisation, resources, and access to critical networks that help shape conversations and influence outcomes.
“In youth mobilisation, you bring your voice and energy, but some youth bring resources, networks, and strategic influence,” he wrote.