Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila Odinga’s grip on youthful firebrands is developing cracks, casting doubt on his rhetoric of supporting the young leaders.

Although his Orange party has had many youthful leaders in every election and within the party ranks, some who feel stifled and constrained under his leadership have rebelled and dumped the outfit for other formations.

This even as Raila has remained conspicuously mum, further escalating tension over whether the vibrant young leaders have a chance of advancing their political ambitions under the once-bold opposition party or not.

Raila faced a similar turbulence in 2016, when the then ODM Secretary General and Budalang’i lawmaker Ababu Namwamba announced his resignation, citing dictatorship, intimidation, frustration, as well as discrimination.

“I will not allow anyone to stifle me, telling me I cannot go there, you cannot speak to this person, this one cannot be your friend. When someone disrespects me, they disrespect Budalangi. We make our decisions in a free manner,” he said during a past press conference.

Internal splits

Speaking to People Daily yesterday, political analyst Masibo Lumala stated that ODM should address the internal splits and iron them out before it is too late. Failure to do so, “it will not be a walk in the park for ODM in 2027”.

“ODM should ignore the young leaders at their own peril,” Prof Masibo added.

He went on to note that, going by President Ruto’s 2022 ‘hustler vs dynasty’ slogan, the 2027 election will be more of a “young vs old” moment, which ODM seems to be ignoring.

KNBS statistics

According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), as of 2022 general elections, the youth constituted more than 70 per cent whose participation in the next elections will be central.

This figure is projected to rise according to the recent Gen Z wave that was witnessed countrywide. As of 2022, 22.1 million people were registered as voters.

According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), they intend to register an additional 5.7 million voters ahead of 2027.

Just last week, during the Law Society of Kenya (LSK) Annual Conference in Diani, the Embakasi East lawmaker Babu Owino made a subtle and deliberate challenge to ODM’s hierarchy when he openly declared support for Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

“Unto his excellency Kalonzo Musyoka, go ye and conquer the nations,” said Babu towards the end of his speech.

He has also maintained his stance when it comes to condemning the ills of the government and calling a spade a spade.

Moreover, ODM Secretary General, and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, like Babu, has been critical of this alliance and has stood out as a vocal critic of the Kenya Kwanza government that his party leader is part of.

In one instance, he elicited controversy when he described ODM as being ‘confused’ and admitted that he was unsure of the party’s political direction.

During an interview on a local TV, he stated, “Right now, there is a lot of confusion. I have told my party leader that there was a time when it was very easy to be the SG of ODM… You would wake me up in the middle of the night and ask me anything because we agreed that you can compromise on tactics, but you can never compromise on your values.”

His remarks, in turn, rattled many, with Nyaribari Chache legislator Zaheer Jhanda calling for his expulsion.

“Sifuna must resign or be expelled from ODM. You cannot dine at the table of unity by day and sharpen swords of sabotage by night. That’s political conmanship. If you think you have better ideas than President Ruto, run against him. Enough of the double speak from ODM.”

Ditching party

Both Babu and Sifuna have hinted at the possibility of ditching the party in the next general elections should it stand in the way of their political ambitions.

Additionally, in July, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi similarly remained adamant that he will not seek re-election on the ODM ticket if the working agreement with Kenya Kwanza does not come to an end.

Reacting to this, Lumala noted, “When young leaders like Amisi (Saboti MP Caleb Amisi), Babu, Sifuna and others walk out of ODM, they will not go as individuals – they will go with their constituents.”

While the youthful leaders feel the brunt of the broad-based government, the older loyalists of the party have thrown their weight behind Raila and are scheming to teach the youthful leaders a lesson come the 2027 polls.

For instance, Siaya Senator and Raila’s brother, Oburu Odinga, has on several occasions asked those opposing the broad-based government to defect.

Another political analyst, Martin Andati, told People Daily, “Naturally, the old guard would like to keep the party under wraps and have full control, which is making the Young Turks uncomfortable. This has led to wrangles and rebellion by the likes of Sifuna, Caleb Amisi, et al.”