Inside battle for ODM’s Nyanza turf as Oburu, Sifuna plan parallel rallies
By Aloys Michael, May 16, 2026A political firestorm is on the horizon in Nyanza as Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) rival factions, Linda Mwananchi and Linda Ground, stage parallel rallies on May 31, 2026.
In what could be an acid test and empirical test for the two factions, the rallies come at a time when Oburu’s camp is facing mounting pressure over zoning, even as President William Ruto’s UDA insists on fielding candidates in the Orange outfits’ strongholds in the 2027 polls.
At the same time, Oburu’s Linda Ground is losing its political vet as the embattled ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna’s camp continues to gain traction, according to the latest polls.
A new Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) survey revealed overwhelming support for the Linda Mwananchi faction associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, significantly outshining the rival Linda Ground camp linked to Oburu Odinga.
The survey paints a picture of an ODM support base increasingly gravitating toward a more aggressive, people-centred opposition approach, signalling growing discomfort with leaders perceived to be warming up to Ruto’s re-election bid.
According to the TIFA findings released on Thursday, May 14, 2026, the Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi faction commands 73 per cent support among ODM supporters, compared to just 24 per cent for the Linda Ground camp. Only three per cent of respondents said they had no opinion.
“ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent, people-centred opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with government. Strong backing for Linda Mwananchi suggests growing grassroots preference for leaders perceived as defending public interests and holding government accountable,” the survey notes.
ODM Party leader Oburu Oginga is planning a major rally in Kisumu, while the rival camp aligned to embattled Secretary General Edwin Sifuna will hold a separate political gathering in neighbouring Homa Bay on the same day.
The parallel functions are poised to demonstrate the political strength and influence each faction holds across the vote-rich Nyanza region, coming at a time when Sifuna is being positioned as the most formidable opposition presidential flagbearer.
The polls have further predicted that Sifuna, as a political protégé of the late ODM leader Raila Odinga, can easily win substantial votes in Orange’s support bases across the country.
Ruto-ODM 2027 pact
The battle for Nyanza base comes at a delicate moment for Ruto, who is increasingly banking on gaining a foothold in Luo Nyanza as part of his re-election matrix.
There are fears that the growing divisions within ODM now present a fresh challenge to Ruto’s strategy, especially as Mt Kenya continues to show signs of slipping away from the ruling camp as defections and discontent from UDA complicate the UDA chief’s second-term plan.
Nowhere is this tension more evident than in the Gusii region, where the political ground appears to be shifting rapidly.
Once considered a reliable ODM stronghold with growing inroads by Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Kisii and Nyamira are emerging as battlegrounds shaped by new allegiances and rising political figures.
The growing influence of Jubilee deputy party leader Fred Matiang’i has disrupted traditional alignments, presenting a formidable challenge to both ODM and UDA. H
However, the Oburu-led ODM faction is now going all out to assert its authority and ring-fence its support bases from infiltration by rivals. ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga declared that her side would organise the mother of all rallies in Kisumu to prove which faction commands greater support in the lakeside city, widely regarded as ODM’s political nerve centre.
“They (Linda Mwananchi) have been boasting about their recent Kisumu rally. I want to tell you we are coming to Kisumu to show the whole world how strong ODM is in Kisumu,” Wanga said in Nyando.
Oburu’s headache
As internal political rivalry intensifies, ODM Party leader Oburu Odinga is pushing to restore stability within the Orange party while consolidating its influence in Western Kenya.
The Siaya Senator on Monday convened a key leadership meeting that united factions linked to Cooperative CS Wycliffe Oparanya and Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa amid growing supremacy battles threatening ODM’s regional dominance.
Present at the meeting were Oparanya, Barasa, who also serves as the county party chairman and several Members of Parliament from the county.
Also in attendance were MPs Benard Shinali (Ikolomani), Elsie Muhanda (Woman Representative), Nabii Nabwera (Lugari), Johnson Manya Naicca (Mumias West), Emmanuel Wangwe (Navakholo) and Christopher Aseka Wangaya (Khwisero).
ODM leaders resolved to strengthen the party’s structures in Kakamega by promoting unity and improving coordination among local officials. The county has recently experienced parallel leadership claims, with both Barasa and Nabwera asserting authority as ODM county chairpersons.
During the meeting, leaders emphasised the need for closer collaboration to safeguard ODM’s influence in Kakamega, a key party stronghold.
The discussions form part of wider efforts to harmonise party operations, messaging, and grassroots mobilisation ahead of upcoming political engagements.