President William Ruto remains the frontrunner in the race to State House if a presidential election were held today, according to a new Infotrak opinion poll that also shows Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna emerging as one of the biggest gainers in Kenya’s evolving political landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The survey, released on Monday, July 13, 2026, places Ruto at 32 per cent support, comfortably ahead of his closest challenger, Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who garnered 13 per cent.

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the poll is Sifuna’s rise to third place, where he is tied with former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 12 per cent, signalling growing national recognition for the first-term Nairobi senator.

Ruto maintains commanding lead

According to the survey, Ruto enjoys a 19-point lead over Kalonzo, highlighting the political advantage he currently holds despite sustained criticism from opposition leaders over the cost of living, governance and taxation.

The popularity rankings released by Infotrak show William Ruto at 32%, Kalonzo Musyoka at 13%, Edwin Sifuna – 12%, Fred Matiang’i – 12%, Rigathi Gachagua – 4%, Babu Owino – 3%, David Maraga – 2%, Martha Karua – 1%, Other candidates – 1%, Prefer not to say – 3%, and Undecided voters – 18%.

The poll was conducted among 3,000 respondents across the country.

Sifuna’s rapid rise

Sifuna’s emergence as a joint third-placed presidential contender marks one of the most notable shifts in Kenya’s opposition politics.

Although he has repeatedly maintained that his immediate political focus remains strengthening the opposition movement, Sifuna has increasingly been mentioned among possible presidential contenders, especially following the launch of the Linda Mwananchi movement.

In recent months, the Nairobi senator has shared political platforms with leaders including Siaya Governor James Orengo, PLP leader Martha Karua, former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua as opposition realignments gather pace ahead of 2027.

His growing visibility has coincided with calls from some opposition figures, including Jubilee Deputy Organising Secretary Pauline Njoroge, for younger leaders to be included in the coalition’s top decision-making table.

Matiang’i remains in contention

The poll also shows former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i maintaining significant national support despite only recently re-entering active politics.

Matiang’i has been positioning himself as one of the opposition’s leading presidential hopefuls after being endorsed by sections of the Jubilee Party and other opposition leaders.

His tie with Sifuna suggests the race for the opposition ticket remains highly competitive.

Kalonzo leads opposition field

While Ruto tops the overall presidential race, Kalonzo continues to enjoy an advantage among opposition aspirants.

A separate Infotrak analysis released alongside the survey ranks Kalonzo as the opposition’s most preferred presidential candidate, narrowly ahead of Matiang’i, with Sifuna emerging as the third most preferred opposition figure.

The same poll also found that a Kalonzo Musyoka–Edwin Sifuna presidential ticket would be the opposition’s most popular combination, attracting 23 per cent support among respondents, higher than any other proposed opposition pairing.

Large bloc of undecided voters

Despite Ruto’s lead, the survey indicates that the race remains far from settled.

Infotrak found that 18 per cent of respondents remain undecided, while another 3 per cent declined to disclose their preferred candidate.

Political analysts say this sizeable bloc could prove decisive as political alliances continue to shift over the next year.

Regional political battlegrounds

The survey also highlights Kenya’s increasingly regionalised political landscape.

According to Infotrak, Ruto enjoys overwhelming support in the North Rift and remains strong in parts of the Mt Kenya region.

Kalonzo dominates the Lower Eastern region, while Gachagua retains significant backing in sections of Mt Kenya.

Meanwhile, Matiang’i posts his strongest numbers in parts of Nyanza, and Eugene Wamalwa continues to command support in Western Kenya.

Although the poll offers one of the clearest snapshots yet of Kenya’s political mood, the findings come more than a year before the official campaign period for the 2027 General Election.