Political commentator Tony Gachoka has claimed President William Ruto will be forced to change his running mate ahead of the 2027 General Election, arguing that the current political arithmetic no longer guarantees the Kenya Kwanza coalition victory.

Speaking during a televised interview on Sunday, July 12, 2026, Gachoka said Ruto has “no choice” but to reconsider his deputy if he hopes to build a winning coalition.

“Ruto will change his deputy president; he has no choice,” Gachoka said.

“The problem with Ruto is that his calculation on Baba disappeared. When he made a deal with Baba, he made a deal with ODM. ODM is minus Kisii, Kamba and Luhya. If Sifuna exits with the orphans out of the traditional ODM, Ruto does not have the numbers. Kindiki cannot be a deputy unless he is bringing in the vote.”

Gachoka argued that Ruto’s political support base is shrinking and predicted the president would struggle to secure re-election.

“Ruto knows he is going. The way Ruto is behaving is very normal with dictators. Ruto does not have the coalition to be able to run and win an election,” he claimed.

“He is not going to be the first person to be defeated. He must remember that there is a place for retired presidents.”

The political analyst also singled out Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya as a key figure capable of reshaping opposition politics in Western Kenya.

According to Gachoka, Natembeya’s decision to suspend plans to launch a new political party in favour of working with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna could significantly weaken Kenya Kwanza’s influence in the region.

“Dawa ya Ruto ni George Natembeya. Natembeya has understood that he must give Sifuna cover; he must guide his brother,” Gachoka said.

“What Natembeya and Sifuna are doing will be the game-changer for Ruto.”

He further claimed that removing Western Kenya from Ruto’s support base would effectively end the president’s re-election prospects.

“That party will remove the Luhya nation from the Kenya Kwanza coalition. The moment you remove the Luhya component from the Kenya Kwanza coalition, that is the end of Ruto,” he said.

Gachoka also suggested there were internal succession calculations within Kenya Kwanza over who should deputise Ruto in 2027.

He alleged that State House aide Farouk Kibet favours National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula over Deputy President Kithure Kindiki as Ruto’s running mate.

“Farouk Kibet is clever; he has been pushing Wetang’ula very much because he thinks Wetang’ula should be the running mate of Ruto, not Kindiki,” he claimed.

He added that Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Wetang’ula continue to face political challenges in consolidating support in Western Kenya.

Turning to the opposition, Gachoka described Senator Sifuna as an emerging political force whose popularity extends beyond the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

“Sifuna has come as a phenomenon; he has come of the people and by the people,” he said.

He argued that Sifuna’s political appeal stems from his close association with Raila Odinga and his family roots in Western Kenya.

“Sifuna has got three advantages: he was born in Bungoma, his mother is from Kakamega, and he is the son of Raila. By staying close to Raila, he was able to inherit the Baba orphans and constituencies,” he stated.

Gachoka called on voters in Western Kenya to rally behind the Nairobi senator, saying such a move would fundamentally alter the 2027 presidential contest.

“I want to tell every Luhya, you must all come behind Sifuna. If the entire Western comes behind Sifuna, there will be no election in 2027. Sifuna can sit with Kalonzo, and they can form a ticket that can take Ruto home,” he said.

Neither State House, Deputy President Kindiki, Speaker Wetang’ula, Senator Sifuna nor Governor Natembeya had publicly responded to Gachoka’s remarks at the time of publication.