Political commentator Herman Manyora has voiced his opinion that the former deputy president, Rigathi Gachagua, might be the backbone of the opposition politics in Kenya because, without him, the opposition could easily fall flat.

Speaking in an interview with a local radio station on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, Manyora has cited that the current opposition coalition is heavily reliant on the influence of Gachagua, especially in the Mount Kenya wing of the opposition coalition. Manyora has said that should Gachagua step out of active politics, even temporarily, the opposition would lose its impulse, organisation, and national appeal.

“Gachagua could run because it has gotten to a time where, likely, without him, there is no opposition. It would collapse the same day if Gachagua said today, ‘No, I am fed up with your politics; let me take a holiday until next year, December.’ There will be no opposition,” Manyora stated.

Mount Kenya factor and political mobilisation

According to the outspoken political analyst, the politics of the Mount Kenya Region have continued to converge around Gachagua, making him a key mobiliser whose influence the direction of the 2027 race might turn on.

He claimed that in the event that the region were completely united in support of one political figure, the collective strength in this regard would be sufficient to substantially change the electoral balance in Kenya in the lead-up to the next general election.

2027 presidential arithmetic at stake

In looking forward to the 2027 presidential race, Manyora cautioned that the entry of Gachagua into the race would fundamentally change the political arithmetic, especially for President William Ruto.

He observed that the candidacy of Gachagua would divide and realign voting blocks, in particular, in the event that other leaders of the united opposition would rally behind him as a single candidate. This, he said, would go a long way towards undermining the re-election chances of Ruto.

Resistance ability and financial disadvantage

Meanwhile, Prof. Manyora has been sceptical regarding the capability of the opposition to challenge Ruto’s political machine seriously. He claimed that, in addition to popularising, the opposition does not have the organisational structure and financial muscle that it would take to be competitive at a national level.

He claimed that the opposition lacked the sort of funding that they would need to run a competitive campaign against the state-backed political machine.

He said that the opposition will not have the kind of organisational capacity it will need to confront Ruto.

Narrative politics as the opposition’s main weapon

Manyora also noted that the greatest strength of the opposition was not based on resources or structure but on public sentiment and messaging. He claimed that the way they influence the shaping and driving of political narratives will be crucial to their survival in the race.

The only thing that the opposition can count on and has to be good at pushing the stories forward is the public, he noted.

He found that even though Gachagua might have been able to consolidate the Mount Kenya vote basket, winning against Ruto was not going to be a foregone conclusion. Rather, the opposition would have to rely on the effectiveness with which it develops and maintains its political message nationwide to succeed.