Kenyans remember ODM leader Raila Odinga’s heyday when he stood at the forefront of a historic revolution against President Daniel arap Moi’s KANU regime. In his prime, Raila was vibrant, tenacious, and fiercely galvanising, commanding crowds with seemingly inexhaustible energy.

His trademark rallying call — the electrifying “Haiyaaaa” — would send waves of excitement rippling through gatherings, becoming an infectious anthem among his supporters.

Born in Maseno, Kenya, in 1945, Raila has been the country’s opposition voice for decades. He actively began his political career in the 1970s, advocating for changes to Kenya’s government.

Years in detention

After being acquitted of conspiring to assassinate President Daniel arap Moi in 1982, he spent six years in detention without charge or trial. Though he unsuccessfully ran for President in 1997 on behalf of the NDP, Odinga retained his National Assembly position. Subsequently, he and the NDP backed Moi and the Kikuyu-controlled Kenya African National Union (KANU).

In 2001, Odinga joined Moi’s Cabinet as minister of Energy. The following year, the NDP merged with the ruling party, and Odinga was appointed secretary-general of KANU.

That was then. Today, the Raila who strides onto political podiums appears a shadow of the firebrand who once set stadiums roaring. The trademark energy seems blunted, the speeches less animated, the voice less commanding. Increasingly, murmurs are turning into open questions: does the doyen of opposition politics still have the stamina to steer Kenya’s political tide?

Comparisons with President William Ruto during the heated 2022 campaigns remain fresh in the public mind. Both men drew mammoth crowds, but their styles could not have been more different. Ruto, younger and relentlessly on the move, sometimes clocked four rallies before mid-morning. Raila, by contrast, would often make his first appearance of the day around 11am.

Matter of age

Salim Ahmed, a long-time Raila supporter from Likoni, Mombasa, recalls one rally at the Mama Ngina Waterfront that left supporters baffled: “He spoke for less than three minutes, then broke into a song about ‘Dereva Kombo’ — and that was it. The meeting ended abruptly. We all looked at each other wondering what had happened. Since then, I feel he has slowed down even more. His speeches aren’t as sharp or as coherent as before.”

Political observers note that while ideology and reform remain key in any campaign, age has quietly crept into the conversation. Political analyst Shaban Mwalimu points to a global trend: “From George Weah in Liberia to Burkina Faso’s 37-year-old Ibrahim Traoré and Senegal’s 44-year-old Bassirou Faye, youth is becoming a selling point.

“Even here at home, Ruto’s energetic grassroots campaign in 2022 owed much to his vigour. We are seeing the same debates about age shaping politics in the US with Joe Biden.”

Kenya is changing. A younger, bolder generation is rising — tech-savvy, socially conscious, and deeply frustrated. They are not tied to the old political dogmas of ethnicity and patronage. Kenya’s political leadership is undergoing a gradual shift that puts the future of the old guard on edge. The change is not only being felt across the country; it is visible, seemingly inevitable, and almost tangible.

The flames ignited by the Gen Z-led anti-Finance Bill protests in June 2024 continue to illuminate a new path for emerging young leaders who boldly challenge the traditional political order. These leaders are defined by their digital activism, focus on broader issues such as social justice and accountability, and their ability to mobilise and organise both online and offline — transcending the long-standing ethnic and party divisions that have shaped Kenya’s politics for decades.

Still, Mwalimu insists that Raila is far from politically finished: “History shows he always finds his way into government — win or lose. He has mastered the art of timing. In politics, timing is everything, and Raila understands when to make his move. That’s why, whether you support him or not, his influence is felt. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s on the 2027 ballot and still ends up at the heart of government.”

Kingmaker, not king

Prof Halimu Shauri of Pwani University agrees that Raila’s old magic has faded but believes it is by design: “He thrives as a kingmaker rather than the king. Being the king comes with responsibility — good or bad. I think Raila prefers to remain Mr Clean, to influence from behind the throne. That has been his pattern from Moi’s time through Kibaki, Uhuru and now Ruto.”

Former Cherangany MP Kipruto arap Kirwa, however, sees no reason to rule Raila out: “In 2027, he’ll be about 82. You don’t have to be the most energetic person in the room to win an election — you just have to be present and in tune with the people’s wishes.”

Bruising contests

Raila’s record in presidential races is long and bruising. In 1997, running on an NDP ticket, he finished third with 665,000 votes behind Moi and Kibaki. In 2002, he famously shelved his ambitions to back Kibaki in the ‘Rainbow Alliance’ wave that swept KANU from power. In 2007, he came within a whisker of the presidency, officially losing to Kibaki by a narrow margin — a result he rejected, sparking post-election violence that left over 1,000 dead and hundreds of thousands displaced.

Three more attempts in 2013, 2017, and 2022 ended in defeat, yet each time Raila walked away with a sizable share of the vote — and often a seat at the high table of government.

The question now is not just whether he will run again, but whether the man whose voice once roared through packed stadiums can still command the same trust, energy, and magic that turned “Haiyaaaa” into a political battle cry.