Saboti Member of Parliament Caleb Amisi has foreseen an imminent fall of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), saying that by August 2027, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) will have swallowed it.

During an interview on K24 TV on Wednesday, May 13, 2026, the outspoken second-term lawmaker said that the ODM party, which was once vibrant, is deteriorating at a faster rate and that by next year it may not be on the ballot, as it could have been folded and absorbed by the ruling party.

“With the current rate at which ODM is going, there will be no ODM on the ballot; there will be no ODM, or they could have merged with UDA to form one party called UDA,” Amisi said.

He attributed what he termed the ‘shrinking of ODM’ to President William Ruto, saying that he has managed to muzzle the party leadership and is satisfied with seeing the Orange party, which has been active for the past two decades, go down the drain.

He further stated that ODM has forgotten its principles and ideals and has become an appendage of the government.

He also took issue with ODM remnants, saying that those in the Linda Mwananchi camp are people who never believed in what Raila stood for and used ODM to get party tickets and positions in government, rather than uphold the late leader’s ideals.

Sifuna’s take on ODM situation

This comes days after Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna also came out to paint the real picture of ODM, saying that its once-solid bases are now vulnerable, with rival outfits such as the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) steadily making inroads.

He noted that counties like Homa Bay, long regarded as ODM strongholds, have never required serious zoning talks in the past, something that is currently a stark contrast.

He added that the party only engaged in zoning talks in places like Nairobi to protect smaller parties that ODM has gone into partnership with, but not in places like Luo Nyanza

“For the first time, I have never heard of zoning in Homa Bay. We have reached a place where we are asking for zoning in Homa Bay; when ODM was strong, we never cared who ran against us,” he stated.

Raila’s sister’s view

On the other side, Pauline Odhiambo Oginga, the stepsister to the late Raila Odinga, has expressed her disappointment with the current state of ODM, saying that Ruto can access the Nyanza region without any support from Orange Party leaders.

Speaking during an interview on Herman Manyora’s podcast aired on Saturday, April 18, 2026, she stated that ODM top party officials should be held solely responsible for the situation.

She accused them of entertaining Ruto too much, allowing him to make inroads into their strongholds without their knowledge, only to later realise that he had already gained significant ground.