Beatrice Elachi: Ol Kalou by-election will test Ruto’s Mt Kenya support ahead of 2027
By Aloys Michael, July 16, 2026Dagoretti North Member of Parliament (MP) Beatrice Elachi says the Ol Kalou by-election in Nyandarua County will offer an important indication of President William Ruto’s political standing in the Mt Kenya region as the country heads towards the 2027 General Election.
Elachi, speaking during an interview on a local TV station on Thursday, July 16, 2026, said the contest should not be viewed only as a battle for a parliamentary seat but as a wider political test of Ruto’s ability to maintain support in Central Kenya amid former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s efforts to consolidate influence in the region.
According to Elachi, the outcome of the Ol Kalou contest will reveal whether Gachagua’s political mobilisation has significantly shifted voter support away from Ruto, who received strong backing from Mt Kenya during the 2022 presidential election.
“He has told the President he has gone with it, so he expects the President to get zero votes in Ol Kalou anyway,” Elachi said, referring to Gachagua’s political alignment in the by-election.
She argued that the political significance of Ol Kalou goes beyond winning or losing the parliamentary seat, saying presidential politics require candidates to build broad regional support that meets constitutional requirements.
“If tomorrow it’s a 50-50, that tells you in 2027 then that is a middle ground. Central Province will be a middle ground for the President,” Elachi said.
The MP explained that a presidential candidate does not necessarily need to win every parliamentary constituency to remain politically competitive. Instead, she said, the focus is often on securing a significant percentage of votes across counties.
Ol Kalou acid test
“He will move with votes. He will get his 25 per cent in the counties, meaning he will be winning in those counties based on our Constitution,” she said.
Elachi compared this strategy to the approach historically used by the late opposition leader Raila Odinga, who has maintained strong presidential support in some regions despite allied candidates losing parliamentary races.
“Baba will lose, yes, Member of Parliament, whatever, but he’ll still get his percentage in some counties. He may find himself with no Members of Parliament, but he has won,” she said.
Her remarks come as Gachagua intensifies political activities in Mt Kenya, where he is seeking to position himself as a leading voice for the region ahead of the 2027 elections.
Gachagua’s strategy combines grassroots mobilisation, criticism of President Ruto’s administration and efforts to build a broad regional political movement. The former deputy president has repeatedly accused some leaders of abandoning the interests of the Mt Kenya community while urging voters to reject politicians he considers disloyal.
“I have urged them to work hard to be elected. All traitors of the Kenyan people and our community who are helping William Ruto persecute our people must be voted out without fear or favour,” Gachagua has said.
On the ground, Gachagua has maintained a visible presence across Mt Kenya counties through political rallies, local radio and television interviews, church events and community gatherings. These platforms remain influential in shaping political opinion in counties such as Nyandarua, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Kiambu and other parts of Central Kenya.
The Ol Kalou by-election has therefore attracted national attention because Nyandarua County sits within the wider Mt Kenya political bloc, a region whose voting patterns could play a major role in determining the outcome of the 2027 presidential contest.
Ruto-Gachagua showdown
For President Ruto, the contest provides an opportunity to measure whether his support base in Central Kenya remains intact after political tensions with Gachagua. For Gachagua, the race offers a chance to demonstrate his ability to influence voter choices in a region that has traditionally played a decisive role in national politics.
Elachi warned against interpreting the outcome simply as a victory or defeat for either side, saying the vote share will provide a clearer picture of the political landscape.
“People forget that that’s the vote he’s looking for. He’s looking for his vote,” she said.
She added that the key question for Ruto’s camp would be whether the President can avoid a political split in Mt Kenya and maintain enough support ahead of 2027.
“You must win and win, and he must ensure that the President does not go with a 50-50 tomorrow in Ol Kalou,” Elachi said.
As political competition intensifies in Central Kenya, the Ol Kalou by-election is emerging as an early indicator of voter sentiment, showing whether Mt Kenya remains a stronghold for President Ruto or becomes a battleground between competing political forces ahead of the next presidential election.