Inside Politics

80% of Gachagua’s supporters expect ODM to rejoin opposition by 2027—survey

Tuesday 23rd December, 2025 11:11 AM| By Luke Oluoch

A majority of Democracy For Citizens Party (DCP) Leader Rigathi Gachagua’s supporters believe the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) will abandon the broad-based government for the opposition ahead of the 2027 elections.

This is according to a survey released by TIFA on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, which shows that up to 80 per cent of Gachagua’s supporters see it as a possibility.

The supporters of the United opposition outfit ranked the highest (80 percent) of those who strongly believe the former Raila Odinga-led party will return to the opposition trenches. Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Party followed with 75 per cent seeing ODM rejoining them in the opposition.

The percentage was close to the opinion of the Jubilee party supporters, with 71 per cent among those seeing the Orange party returning to the opposition and 19 per cent seeing it as likely to stay with the opposition.

ODM evenly divided

Nationally, 50 per cent of Kenyans expect the ODM party to return to the opposition ahead of the 2027 polls. There was, however, an even split among the actual ODM supporters, with 50 per cent expecting it to rejoin the opposition in relation to 38 per cent who want it to stay inside the broad-based government.

A graphical representation of the TIFA Survey on political parties’ supporters on ODM’s ultimate destination ahead of the 2027 polls. PHOTO/A screen grab by People Daily Digital

The division is also slightly close among the members of President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) supporters.

46 per cent of Ruto’s UDA supporters expressed confidence that ODM will stay in the arrangement, with 36 per cent stating that it would return to the united opposition coalition.

The findings come days after Gachagua pleaded with the ODM party to abandon its association with Ruto.

He claimed that Ruto was plotting against weakening the party from within and torpedoing its quest to remain united as envisioned by its former leader, Raila Odinga.

“Ruto is killing ODM. My advice to ODM is that you will lose every seat in Nairobi if you keep following Ruto; he only has 24,000 votes in a corner here in Lang’ata in Nairobi. Where else will they get their seats from while clinging to Ruto? ” he said during a DCP meeting in Nairobi in December 2025.