Why Uhuru transition differs with past

Unlike his predecessor Mwai Kibaki who avoided the politics of his succession, President Uhuru Kenyatta has taken an active role in the 2022 campaigns, earning the wrath of his deputy of 10 years William Ruto.

Uhuru, who is winding up his second and final term in office as Kenya’s fourth president, publicly named former Prime Minister Raila Odinga as his preferred successor.

This has led to heavy backlash from his challengers, who have accused him of attempting to “undermine the power of the people to elect their preferred candidate.”

Many leaders in Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza camp have asked Uhuru to keep off succession politics. Ruto and his key allies in Kenya Kwanza — Musalia Mudavadi, Rigathi Gachagua, Moses Wetangula, Alfred Mutua, Moses Kuria and  Amason Kingi, and others — have since described Raila as a project of “the Deep State.”

Remote controlled

“We will not accept to be bullied into supporting a candidate who will be remote controlled from somewhere while running the government,” said Mudavadi.

On his part, Bahati MP Kimani Ngunjiri has been on record urging the President to emulate Kibaki on political succession.

“I want him to know that he is my President for now; the Deputy President is still in his position; when it comes to 2022 elections, everyone will go their own ways. I urge our President to follow in the footsteps of Kibaki. He did not endorse anyone, he remained quiet and asked everyone to go out and campaign for themselves. Our President should leave office with a good legacy. He should not endorse a presidential candidate,” the MP reckoned.

A glimpse at the transition of the three previous regimes draws a stark contrast to the current state of affairs, where the hand of the outgoing President is actively involved in influencing the succession.

With less than a week to the polls, Kenya is at a critical moment, defined by governance experts as a “make or break.” But how exactly did previous successive regimes handle such a historic moment?

After the death of Founding Father Jomo Kenyatta in 1978, then Vice President Daniel arap Moi took over as the second president, leading the country for over 24 years. This culminated in a dramatic succession by the Opposition. Kenyans rejected Moi’s endorsed candidate, Uhuru, in 2003, overwhelmingly voting for official opposition leader Mwai Kibaki as the third president.

Seen as the “ultimate gentleman of Kenyan politics”, Kibaki was a calming father figure who was expected to manage the country’s transition from a long and difficult era to a calmer period of democracy and economic revival.

Not many expected Kibaki to be involved in dirty tricks. But this changed after the next elections in 2007, which were chaotic.

Five years later, the race to succeed Kibaki was on. Raila Odinga, who at the time was leading a peace mission on Côte d’Ivoire’s election crisis, was seen as the likely successor. But this was before the then International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo named six Kenyans as the masterminds of the 2007-2008 post-election violence in Kenya.

The “Hague Six” were Uhuru, Ruto, Francis Muthaura, Joshua arap Sang, Henry Kosgei and Major General (Rtd) Hussein Ali. But many Kenyans saw the ICC as meddling in the 2013 elections.

Meanwhile, President Kibaki had initiated a process to have the ‘Kenya Case’ at ICC deferred. He dispatched his Vice President, Kalonzo Musyoka, and two ministers (Chirau Ali Mwakwere and Njeru Githae) on a whirlwind shuttle diplomacy mission to South Africa, Malawi, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Botswana, Lesotho, Libya, Zimbabwe, Djibouti and Tanzania to push for the deferral.

Doomed diplomacy

Back home, Musyoka’s mission was downplayed as doomed diplomacy. On his part, Raila said the shuttle diplomacy had not been sanctioned by the Cabinet.

“We never talked about it,” Raila revealed. “What we agreed on was referral, and not deferral, of the cases involving post-election violence suspects. How does the African Union help Kenya yet we are already a signatory of the Rome Statute? If we want to move away from the Rome Statute — which I don’t support — we would rather deal directly with the ICC,” he added.

With Raila on one side and Kibaki and his supporters on the other, the succession race was thrown wide open. The dark cloud of ICC clearly sparked tension within Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) as Ruto, a key figure in mobilising the Rift Valley bloc, was among the Hague Six. This was likely to injure Raila’s chances, in addition to his failed mission in Côte d’Ivoire.

At the time, key contenders for the presidency, apart from Raila, included Musyoka, then Finance Minister Kenyatta, Internal Security Minister George Saitoti, and  former ministers Ruto and Martha Karua. Youthful politician Peter Kenneth, basking in the glory of his impressive record as Gatanga MP, was also in the list.

With his distinct demeanour, Kibaki never openly campaigned for anyone.

He appeared busy preparing his exit. As the campaigns hit fever pitch, Kibaki,  considered by the local media as “laid back”, watching from the periphery.

For the untrained eye, the president had no preferred candidate. But analysts believe his nonverbal actions had immense influence on his succession.

Political analyst and University of Nairobi professor Herman Manyora says the incumbent’s duties, as stipulated by the law, and their personal preferences, must be separated. “As a person and as a Kenyan, the president has his democratic right to support whoever he wants, as Uhuru is supporting Raila. Nobody can stop him from doing that …,” explains Professor Manyora.

He adds that all successive presidents had their preferred candidates whom they supported in their own styles.

“Kibaki supported Uhuru, though he didn’t say it publicly. He made it possible for Uhuru to succeed him by making him Deputy Prime minister, instead of Martha Karua, and putting him in important dockets like Finance. And now Uhuru is supporting Raila, but openly. That is his style and he has his reasons for it,” he explains.

Manyora says that, on handing over executive power, the incumbent has no option. “The law demands that the incumbent hands over powers to the person who wins. That he cannot change. After everything has been followed after the elections, including the petitions, if any, Uhuru will have to hand over power to Raila, Ruto, Wajackoyah or Mwaure, for that matter. That is what the Constitution states,” explains the analyst.

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