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August elections could turn violent if the presidential front-runners fail to commit to peaceful campaigns and publicly express their readiness to concede defeat.

A report by the International Crisis Group (ICG), a think-tank tracking major global events, has warned about the risks the country faces unless leaders make a commitment that they will accept the verdict of the people.

Drawing from past elections where losers contested the results and called for protests which, in 2007, turned into ethnic clashes, ICG said similar events could recur if the main actors fail to commit to the electoral process and the electoral commission fails the independence test.

“The combination of high intra-elite tensions and weak institutions means the outcome of the vote may well be contested if either of the main candidates rejects official results,” the group said in its report, which the People Daily will start serialising tomorrow.

IEBC has cleared four presidential candidates. The winner will take over from President Uhuru Kenyatta who is retiring after serving two terms. 

The race is mainly between the Azimio-One Kenya coalition candidate, Raila Odinga, and Deputy President William Ruto, also the leader of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance. 

Others are George Wajackoyah (Roots Party) and Mwaure Waihiga (Agano Party).

ICG has also warned that failure to adequately fund the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and enact laws to enable it hold a credible election could hamper efforts to deliver free and fair polls.

The August 9 transition election has attracted global attention considering the country’s importance in the stability of the Eastern Africa region and the high stakes often associated with Kenyan elections. 

ICG, which has strong ties with governments globally, said the elections deserve  close international attention because the chances of violence are high.

“A prime scenario for unrest would be if one or another group of Kenya’s political leaders decides to play on existing ethnic and economic cleavages to drive voters into the streets rather than concede defeat,” says the report released last week.

“Such a situation would be still more combustible if voters feel that the polls have been rigged because ill-prepared electoral institutions are visibly struggling to fulfill their mandate.” 

ICG has said it is critical for the frontrunners to be careful about what they tell their supporters to avoid building tensions.

“Candidates and their backers should commit to either accepting poll results or hashing out any disputes in the courts. To tamp down the impression of existential stakes, Kenya’s international partners should coax elites to ratchet down their rhetoric and agree to a pact in which they pledge, consistent with the rule of law and with respect for independent institutions, not to use slash-and-burn tactics to take the loser down a peg after the vote,” the organisation said.

Both Ruto and Raila have expressed readiness to accept the outcome of the results, as long as the elections pass the credibility test.

Ruto, 56, is vying for the first time and hopes his bottom-up economic model message resonates with voters. 

Raila, 77,  is going for the seat for the fifth time. He has been endorsed by President  Uhuru Kenyatta, who fell out with his deputy in their second term. 

Ruto has lodged a vigorous campaign to beat the odds stacked against his candidature as he seeks to become the first candidate to win the presidency in a first attempt since the return of multiparty politics in 1992.

Raila is also eager to exorcise the ghosts that have worked against his candidature in the past four attempts.

Ruto has recently criticised IEBC’s ability to conduct credible elections. While meeting European Union ambassadors a week ago, the DP claimed the voters’ register had been tampered with. According to him, details of one million voters, mostly from his strongholds, had been deleted.

He has also questioned the involvement of Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i and ICT counterpart Joe Mucheru in Raila’s campaigns, saying they could use their positions to interfere with election results.

Raila has also put IEBC on the spot, listing nine issues that he wants the commission to address before the elections, including cleaning up the register to remove dead voters.

State of flux

Besides a public commitment by the leaders, ICG said inadequate funding for IEBC, failure to fill vacant positions at the agency in time and the rejection of laws that could have smoothened the electoral path could muddy the waters.

Last week, the National Assembly’s Delegated Legislation Committee rejected a raft of amendments to the Elections Act that could have eased IEBC’s work. The MPs said IEBC had taken the proposed changes to the House late and without input from the public as required by the law.

This could create room for the election results to be challenged in court.

“Parliament and the President have ignored expert advice that electoral laws should be in place at least two years before presidential and legislative contests,” the ICG report says. 

“As late as mid-2022, several pieces of electoral legislation remained in debate within the Chamber, leaving the electoral commission guessing about regulations it has to enact ahead of the vote.”

The Group said the commission needed close to Sh41.5 billion to organise elections but that it had received only a quarter of the amount by the end of 2021.

“In February, Kenyan lawmakers made $191 million available for the August polls. In March, they approved an additional $76 million, still well below the amount the commission believes is necessary to run a proper election,” the report warns.

However, IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati has said the commission is ready to deliver credible elections despite the underfunding and lack of necessary legislation.

“The commission is moving on with preparations for the elections. We have our election plans which we have been following. Even without those regulations, the commission will deliver to Kenyans a free, fair and credible election come August 9,” Chebukati is on record as saying.

Given the challenges that the commission is facing, ICG has asked the international community to keep a close eye on Kenya’s elections.

“Outside actors should send observers to monitor the vote and support civil society efforts to track the vote. The AU (African Union) observer team should be led by a prominent States person who can use good offices to resolve disputes,” the Group said.