What started as a response to an attack by Hamas on Israel on 7 October 2023 has now snowballed into a full-scale regional conflict with no end in sight.
Hamas attacked Israel in one of the worst intelligence failures of that country, killed 1,200 people, and took 250 hostages. In retaliation, Israel invaded Gaza to destroy Hamas military capabilities, as well as rescue hostages.
In short order, Israel bombed Gaza City to rubble, triggering massive displacement of Palestinians, and killed tens of thousands of civilians. The displaced fled to the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah, which was Israel’s next bombing target, where it destroyed more buildings and killed more Palestinians.
Hezbollah joined the war to support Hamas, lobbing shells into Israel. Israel responded by invading Lebanon and bombing Beirut. It is now contemplating moving ground troops into southern Lebanon. In an alarming escalation of the conflict, Israel bombed ports and power stations in Yemen.
Further, in a clear move to engulf Iran in the conflict, Israel killed several Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria. Iran retaliated by firing a barrage of rockets into Israel.
With Iran entering the conflict, all bets are off. Iran is not Gaza or Lebanon. This is a battle-hardened country that has nuclear capabilities. Even the US has been very circumspect when dealing with Iran. Israel has warned Iran of retaliation for the missile barrage, but clearly, this is a different ball game. Iran will not just roll over and die.
One year later, neither Hamas nor Hezbollah has been obliterated. They are still fully operational and fighting. An estimated 100 Israeli hostages still remain in captivity. After destroying Gaza City and Rafah, Israel has moved to widen the conflict, seeking to provoke new ‘enemies’ into war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not hear of a ceasefire. Western powers are simply aiding Israel’s escalation of the conflict by pouring arms worth billions into that country to continue pounding hapless populations in what has been described as a completely disproportionate response. The West is complicit in the deaths and destruction in Gaza City and Rafah, which can only be described as crimes against humanity.
In the meantime, resistance to the Israeli leader in his own country continues unabated. His government hangs by a thread. He is buffeted by criminal charges that could send him to jail, while antiwar protesters want him to do more to stop the war and bring back hostages. His response is more aggression.
The US is paralysed by the looming presidential elections in November, with the administration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris walking on eggshells so as not to antagonise the highly influential Jewish constituency. An emboldened Netanyahu, therefore, continues the dismantling of the Middle East’s weak states, which cannot retaliate against it, with complete impunity.
As it were, Israel is now bestraddling several war fronts, and without a route for retreat from any, or decisive military victory. It’s now stuck in a situation where it has no retreat and no surrender. It will be bogged down for years.
It is time for Israel to stop digging, but Netanyahu will not countenance any attempts to stop the war. It increasingly looks like his game plan is to engender a fiery conflagration throughout the Middle East to tie up Israel in war for years – and buy him crucial political breathing space for his beleaguered political career, and freedom from prison. Could he have decided to take the Samson option and go down with all hands aboard the Middle East?
When the story of this war is finally written in the years of sobriety ahead, history will record that world leaders stood by and let an embattled and clearly bitter leader destroy entire countries and decimate their populations in order to stave off his own citizens who were baying for his blood.