President William Ruto’s chairperson of the Council of Economic Advisors David Ndii has predicted a bleak future for businesses that depend on the government for survival.

Ndii, who accused retired President Uhuru Kenyatta of creating his legacy through debt, says the government does not have enough resources to sustain what he calls an “industrial-scale corrupt lifestyle economy”.

In a statement on X, Ndii said the Kenyan economy is facing a bleak future, forecasting a shrink.

“Uhuru’s economic legacy is fake debt financed prosperity which benefited urban rentier elites, at the expense of producers, reflected in consumerism similar to resource windfalls economists call “Dutch Disease”. There was no other way this was going to end but in tears,” Ndii wrote.

According to Ndii, the economy might not turn around soon, and Kenyans should focus on production rather than importation.

“This economy is going to shrink. The other day someone who deals in high-end cars asked me when I think economy would turn around. I gave him my honest opinion, told him his line of business was unlikely to recover and he might want to look into a production-oriented sector,” he added.

“Fortunately he’s already doing some farming. Gave him a few tips on some value chains to think about (most people don’t know that farming accounts for only 20% of agricultural value chains— the rest is input supply, logistics, processing etc).”

Ndii’s prediction on tenderprenuers

Ndii says businesses that depend on the government should prepare for disruption. He also says most high-end entertainment joints where tenderpreneurs spend at least Ksh100,000 a night will have to reinvent or close.

“So here’s the low down. If you are in a government-facing or dependent business, prepare for disruption. The facilities gaming the NHIF will have to shape up or ship out. Most high-end entertainment joints where tenderpreneurs blow 100k a night will have to reinvent or close,” he said.

“I’m not saying corruption will end, just that there simply isn’t enough lootable resources to sustain an industrial-scale corrupt lifestyle economy. The debt consumption economy will shrink because it has reached where I warned it would end a decade ago.”

According to Ndii, the current Kenya Kwanza regime is looking to wean the economy from debt consumption addiction to production.

“Ruto and the current crop of KK were part of it. True. Won’t change reality. But you said you have a plan? Yes, we do. It’s about weaning the economy from debt consumption addiction to production. We are implementing it. The withdrawal symptoms mean it is working,” Ndii said.

This comes days after the Central Bank of Kenya said that the risks for inflation remain high for the future, even as the inflation rate for November 2023 remained at 6.8 per cent as compared to 6.9 per cent in October.