The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued an update on the El Nino forecast for the October, November and December (OND) short rains.

In a statement, the Department indicates that the country will experience enhanced (above average) rainfall that will be well distributed in both time and space.

“During OND 2023, it is expected that most parts of the country will experience enhanced (above average) rainfall that will be well distributed in both time and space. The forecast indicates a high probability that some counties in the Northeastern region are likely to experience above-average rainfall,” the Met Department’s forecast reads in part.

In what seems to be a non-commital forecast, the Met Department suggests that there could be El Niño conditions driven by warmer-than-average SSTs over the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean.

“According to most of the global climate models, El Niño conditions are likely to persist throughout the OND season. Additionally, the warmer-than-average SSTs in the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African coastline), coupled with cooler-than-average SSTs over the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia) constitutes a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that is favourable for enhanced rainfall over most of East Africa,” the weatherman says.

Met Department on El Nino

The department, however, predicts that there will be occasional storms over several parts of the country during the season.

The weatherman has predicted above-average rains for Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley and Central and South Rift Valley (Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Kericho, Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Trans Nzoia, Vihiga, Laikipia (Laikipia West), Nakuru and Narok).

Northwestern Counties (Turkana and Samburu) are likely to experience occasional above-average rainfall during the season.

Also, Highlands East of the Rift Valley Counties (Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nairobi and the Eastern parts of Laikipia) are likely to experience above-average rainfall throughout the season.

The Met Department also predicts that South-eastern Lowlands Counties (Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, Taita Taveta and Kajiado) could experience above the long-term average for the season.

“Northeastern Counties (Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo) are expected to experience occasional rainfall during the season. The expected rainfall amount is likely to be above the long-term average for the season, and it is likely to be well distributed in both time and space,” the weatherman added.

Parts of the Northeast (Wajir and Mandera) are likely to experience highly enhanced rainfall (above the long-term average).

The Coastal Counties (Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) should expect above the long-term average amounts for the season.