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  by Rawlings Otieno

 @PeopleDailyKe

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s resolve to get involved in succession politics has rattled his opponents who fear his involvement in the August 9 General-Election will give his preferred successor a headstart.

Political analysts are divided on whether supporting Azimio La Umoja leader Raila Odinga’s candidacy will alter the succession matrix.

Pundits argue that given that Uhuru is retiring, he can campaign for a candidate of his choice especially within his strongholds and has shown the country that he does not support his deputy William Ruto.

They observe that the narrative by the Kenya Kwanza Alliance which brings together the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Amani National Congress (ANC) and Ford Kenya that Raila is a “State Project” cannot hold since the ODM boss is a national leader with a strong support base.

In addition, the political commentators argue that Ruto has been a beneficiary of the State machinery all his political life, adding that the 2002 case when President Daniel arap Moi campaigned for Uhuru and the current scenario are different.

“Uhuru wants to be involved in his succession. That is perfectly in order. He has shown the whole country that he does not support his deputy. He can support anyone else but not his deputy,” said lawyer Martin Oloo.

Uhuru’s Jubilee Party, which held its Parliamentary Group meeting at State House last week resolved to have the President continue serving as the party leader even after his retirement as Head of State.

Moi’s choice

The Jubilee legislators also agreed to partner with “like-minded individuals” who can further Uhuru’s legacy agenda once his term expires.

“The Jubilee Party will seek to get into a coalition with like-minded parties and support a presidential candidate with whom we share common ideals, who will treat us with respect, and with whom we can form the next government as an ‘anchor partner’, to continue with the work done during the last 10 years,” read a statement from the party.

However, Oloo argues that Uhuru’s support will positively contribute to Raila’s success, by giving him a foothold in Central Kenya than ever before.

“He is no longer the victim of teargas and run-ins with the State. It bolsters his political cards. On the other hand, Uhuru’s preference for Raila has irked Ruto and ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi. It has made the sulking duo unite against Raila,” said Oloo.

The DP and his troops have been firing missiles at the President, warning that his support for Raila will face the same fate as his (Uhuru’s) when Moi selected him over other political heavyweights at the time.

Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua averred that times and circumstances have changed, adding that the President’s campaign for Raila has many variables and interests with a new legislative framework currently in place.

“History does not repeat itself. Raila is a mature politician with his own system. Uhuru’s party is joining the Azimio coalition and Raila enjoys massive national support,” said Mokua.

However, another commentator Javas Bigambo argued that compared to the 2002 succession matrix, Raila needs to fight the “project” tag coined by his opponents, and position himself as his own man.

“Raila should not be seen to freely and openly enjoy the utility of State resources placed at his disposal. This is something that even Uhuru should approach with caution, to avoid the outcome mirroring the 2002 presidential elections,” warned Bigambo.

Uhuru’s strategy

Oloo says Moi’s experience in 2002 cannot be compared to Uhuru’s 2022 choices, adding that Moi plucked Uhuru from “nowhere” adding that “not even Central Kenya was ready for Uhuru”.

“That is why the ‘Kibaki Tosha’ strategy was enough to deny Uhuru the Kikuyu vote. On the contrary, Raila has a block of supporters with a record of 44 per cent of the votes in three general elections. He needs a little propping to go past 50+1,” he said.

He added: “What we are witnessing is a well thought-through strategy for Uhuru to manage his succession and to consign his deputy to the opposition.”

Addressing a rally in Kirinyaga County last month, Ruto told the President that his Raila ‘project’ will not succeed.

“With all due respect to my friend President Kenyatta. Please Mr President that ‘project of Raila’ will not succeed. A Raila project is a no,” said Ruto.

Mokua further argued that by taking charge of his own succession, the President) will influence the outcome of the 2022 presidential race, adding that if his candidate wins, then his priorities and interests will be key in the next administration but if the candidate loses, Uhuru will go home with egg on his face.

“Uhuru’s support for Raila means that Raila takes liability and credit for the last 10 years of Jubilee administration. Raila will have brand association. He may secure votes if voters are happy with UhuRuto 10 years or lose votes if voters are unhappy with UhuRuto administration,” he argued.

Negative connotation

Article 38 of the Constitution confers political rights on President Kenyatta as a citizen, and based on Article 36 of the Constitution, he has the freedom to associate politically and convey his opinions.

Bigambo argued that the vantage position President Kenyatta holds enables him to wield so much influence with social and political capital to expend State resources at his disposal, which upon deployment to favour his preferred presidential candidate, greatly disadvantages the opponents.

“It is such advantages that may create the perception that Raila is a State project, because of the beneficial interests of the President in Raila’s candidature. This may have a negative connotation if the President spreads such influence nationally in favour of Raila,” he argued.

Both President Kenyatta and Raila are currently in Addis Ababa Ethiopia for the African Union Heads of State meeting.