World Bank warns Africa’s carbon gold rush risks leaving communities behind
By Aloys Michael, May 24, 2026East Africa is rapidly emerging as one of the world’s most attractive carbon market frontiers, with forests, mangroves, cookstove projects and grazing lands increasingly being turned into carbon assets worth billions of shillings.
But as global demand for carbon credits surges, difficult questions are emerging across Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda over who is truly profiting from Africa’s green boom: local communities protecting ecosystems or foreign brokers and corporations buying offsets.
The World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026 report says carbon credit markets are entering a new phase of expansion, with future carbon credit purchase agreements now valued at between Ksh1.55 trillion and Ksh2.06 trillion globally.
At the same time, the report warns that revenues from carbon pricing remain heavily concentrated in wealthy countries even as many nature-based carbon projects are located in developing economies.
“Almost all carbon revenues are raised in high-income countries and are regionally concentrated in Europe and North America,” the report states.
That imbalance is becoming increasingly visible in East Africa, where communities are being drawn into fast-growing carbon offset projects linked to global climate finance.
Kenya has become a major hub for forestry carbon credits, clean cookstove programs, regenerative agriculture and soil carbon initiatives. Large-scale projects now stretch across Northern Kenya conservancies, Maasai grazing lands and mangrove ecosystems in Lamu.
Neighbouring Tanzania and Uganda are also aggressively pursuing nature-based carbon finance as governments and investors race to secure land suitable for conservation-linked carbon projects.
The region’s appeal lies in its vast natural ecosystems and relatively low project costs compared to Europe or North America.
But critics warn that Africa risks becoming merely a cheap offset supplier for wealthy polluting economies.
Carbon markets price shift
The World Bank notes that while global carbon markets are expanding, quality is increasingly determining which projects attract buyers and premium prices.
“There’s growing evidence that higher-rated projects attract higher prices,” the report says.
At the same time, lower-quality projects are facing mounting scrutiny amid concerns over exaggerated emissions reductions, weak verification standards and limited community benefits.
That shift is placing pressure on developers across East Africa to prove the environmental and social integrity of projects increasingly marketed to international corporations seeking to offset emissions.
The report says forestry and land-use projects recorded some of the largest year-on-year increases in carbon credit issuances globally.
For communities living inside conservation zones, however, the benefits remain contested.
Questions are growing over who owns carbon rights tied to forests, rangelands and mangroves, local communities, county governments, private developers or national authorities.
In Kenya, disputes have already emerged in some conservation areas over revenue sharing, grazing restrictions and land control linked to carbon projects.
Pastoralist groups in Northern Kenya and Maasai communities have increasingly demanded greater transparency around contracts signed with foreign carbon developers.
Analysts warn that unless governance systems improve, the region could face a new form of resource inequality where communities protecting ecosystems receive only a fraction of the revenues generated from global carbon trading.
The World Bank report suggests global demand for high-integrity carbon projects is likely to continue growing as governments tighten climate rules and companies seek credible emissions reductions.
At the same time, carbon pricing systems are rapidly expanding worldwide.
“Nearly one-third of global GHG emissions could be covered by carbon pricing by 2030 if planned carbon pricing instruments become operational,” the report states.
That growth is increasing pressure on corporations to secure offsets and nature-based climate solutions, particularly in developing regions with large conservation landscapes.
Yet despite Africa’s growing role in supplying carbon credits, the report notes that middle- and low-income countries generate only about one per cent of global carbon pricing revenues.