Why Ruto is pushing Raila to Addis

President Ruto has rallied East Africa leaders and a galaxy of diplomats to campaign for Raila for the post of the African Union Commission chairperson.

This is largely seen as a quid pro quo after the Azimio leader helped quell protests that saw  Gen-Z storm Parliament demanding a better tax regime, a move that forced President Ruto to dissolve cabinet.

In ensuing act of self-preservation, President Raila’s key allies to government including former governors Wycllife Oparanya, Ali Hassan Joho and top Orange stalwalts John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi.

A source from Raila’s inner circles disclosed that President Ruto personally approached the ODM leader with the proposal and promised to rally the government’s support for his AU office candidature should he accept the official offer.

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Mahamat, who is a former Minister of Foreign Affairs, is set to leave office in March next year when his term comes to an end.

The push from Ruto’s administration to try and convince Raila to take the helm at the AU office, is being seen as a targeted to keep him busy away from the Kenyan political where he has been a headache for President Ruto.

 Though likely to raise Raila’s stature, the move, according to those privy to the President’s thinking, will effectively mellow down the Opposition chief who will required to adopt a diplomatic mien that is demanded of the continental job.

Besides, it will gag him from active political campaigns for himself or another candidate, largely perceived to be Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

With Raila perhaps currently standing out as President Ruto’ s fiercest political threat, pundits and governance experts believe by taking the AU position, the opposition leader will have automatically bolstered the incumbent’s chances for a second term in 2027.

However, others like professor Fred Ogola of Operation Linda Ugatuzi (OLU), believe president Ruto should not be concerned about Raila as his only political rival as there could be other surprise opponents who can give him a tougher run than Raila.

On whether Raila should consider the AU position or not Ogola suggests that the Azimio la Umoja boss should consider a number of factors including whether he will maintain his political turf, his family and what will happen to his party ODM when he leaves for the Addis Ababa office.

“I will advise Raila to take the office because this is in his hands and it is coming before the elections. If they were sequential games where it was happening simultaneously with elections it could be different. However he can go to that office and then let him see what happens there he might not like it and come back. Now the problem of going there and coming back is what will be the perception on the ground, how will he deal with that perception? Can he continue being relevant? Will the supporters think that he had run away and now he is rejoining himself there? The AU council chair is not a part time office where he will be reconnecting with his turf oftenly,” the professor explained:

Should Raila accept the overtures, then the government could present his name to the AU Commission Secretariat once the position has been declared vacant.

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The African Union Member President summit will meet in July this year to declare the AU Chief’s seat vacant and thereafter the door will be open for various interested candidates to submit their applications.

As a key requirement candidates must be endorsed by their respective governments.

Since its inception, the position has been variously occupied by a former head of state, ex-Mali President Alpha Konare, and two foreign ministers, including the incumbent.

Mahamat took over from Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma following a hotly contested election. Voting was postponed from July 2016 to January 2017 after none of the candidates managed to get a two-thirds majority.  Mahamat only joined the race in the second round and ultimately established himself as a consensual candidate for African heads of state and government.

Technically, the chairperson of the AUC is charged with the Commission’s administration and finances; promoting and popularising the union’s objectives and enhancing its performance; consulting and coordinating with key stakeholders like member states, development partners,  appointing and managing Commission staff; and acting as a depository for all AU treaties and legal instruments.

The Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) also allows him to use his powers in the prevention, management and resolution of conflicts on the continent.

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Given that the head of state who is chosen to chair the AU has only a one-year term, the AUC chairperson plays an important role in ensuring the continuity of work at the Commission.

Former Kakamega governor who is also ODM deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya revealed that there have been advances from the government quarters about the seat but so far there has been no comment from the ODM party leader.

“It will be upon Raila to decide whether he wants the position or not. He will not be forced or coerced to take the position,” Oparanya said.

On October 20, 2018, during the leadership of former Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila was appointed as the High Representative for Infrastructure in Africa.

The appointment came six months after he ended his political enmity with President Kenyatta, who played a crucial role in influencing the appointment.

In his role, Raila was tasked with the integration of the continent through infrastructure, to promote economic growth and sustainable development.

He held the position until February last year when AU announced the end of his tenure.

In a statement by the Chairperson of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat, AU said the end of the role came after the continental body completed the transformation of NEPAD Agency to the African Union Development Agency-Nepad.