Weatherman explains reason behind heavy rains in August
By Joel Masibo, August 26, 2025The Kenya Meteorological Department has linked the chilly weather and unusual heavy rainfall experienced between August 17 and August 19, 2025, to complex global climate patterns.
According to the weather forecasters, the downpours were triggered by two key atmospheric drivers working in tandem. The first was the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale tropical weather system that moves eastward around the globe. During the August rains, the MJO was in Phases 2 and 3 over the Indian Ocean, which enhanced convection and moisture buildup over East Africa, fueling above-average rainfall.
Secondly, experts noted the role of the Atlantic Ocean, where cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures created a pressure gradient. This atmospheric imbalance pulled the rain-bearing systems farther east than usual, delivering heavier rainfall across several parts of Kenya.
”These conditions have since eased, but the Kenya Meteorological Department continues to monitor evolving patterns closely,” KMD observed in its latest update on Tuesday, August 26, 2025.
While the unexpected mid-August rains brought relief to some farmers in the country’s agricultural areas, they also triggered flooding in low-lying regions.
The Kenya Meteorological Department had issued a heavy rainfall advisory for 30 counties, warning residents to brace for intense downpours, strong winds, and possible flash floods from Sunday, August 17, to Tuesday, August 19, 2025.
Kenya Met issues weather advisory
In a statement posted on its X account on Saturday, August 16, 2025, the agency said the rainfall over parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, and Highlands West of the Rift would intensify to more than 20mm within 24 hours before spreading to the Highlands East of the Rift Valley.
“The rainfall pounding parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and Highlands West of the Rift Valley is expected to intensify to more than 20mm in 24 hours and spread to the Highlands East of the Rift Valley on Sunday, August 17, 2025. The heavy rainfall is likely to continue up to Tuesday, August 19, 2025,” the statement from the meteorological department read.
The meteorological department also forecasted that the particular intensity would decrease starting on Wednesday, August 20, 2025.
“It is projected to reduce in intensity from Wednesday, August 20, 2025. The strong southerly winds of more than 25knots (12.9 m/s) being experienced over the eastern sector are projected to continue,” the statement reads.