A new national survey released by TIFA Research on Wednesday, May 28, 2025, reveals that only 22% of Kenyans support the Broad-Based Government (BBG), the informal alliance between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga.

The poll, conducted between May 2, 2025, and May 6, 2025, sampled 2,024 respondents across nine regions and provides fresh insight into the shifting political landscape as the 2027 General Election approaches.

Public opinion divide

According to the survey, 54% of respondents oppose the Ruto-Raila coalition, while 25% expressed no opinion.

Support for the BBG is concentrated in a few regions, with Central Rift leading at 37%, followed by Northern Kenya at 35%, and Nyanza at 25%. Conversely, opposition is strongest in Mt. Kenya (72%) and Lower Eastern (70%), areas politically aligned with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, respectively.

“This data underscores the fragile nature of the alliance,” TIFA noted. “Even in Nyanza, Raila’s political base, support for the BBG is tepid. Meanwhile, Mount Kenya and Lower Eastern, which heavily backed Ruto and Kalonzo respectively in 2022, are now BBG skeptics.”

Economic impact factor

The TIFA report shows that economic hardship is a key driver of opposition to the BBG. Among those who oppose the coalition, 85% reported that their economic situation has worsened since the 2022 election, compared to 52% among BBG supporters.

“While economic decline is not the only factor influencing support, it is a significant one,” the report states.

Only 4% of those whose economic situation improved oppose the BBG, indicating a strong correlation between personal hardship and political sentiment.

2027 election outlook

The implications for the 2027 General Election are significant. With such low support for the BBG nationally and rising public skepticism, political strategists on both sides will be forced to recalibrate.

Despite his role in the coalition, Raila Odinga’s future remains unclear. According to the poll, 46% of Kenyans expect him to rejoin the opposition,either as a presidential candidate (28%) or to support another contender (18%). Only 23% believe he will support Ruto’s re-election.

As TIFA concludes, “These findings suggest a politically fractured country, with the BBG struggling to inspire confidence,particularly among those hardest hits by the current economic climate.”