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They are loudly quiet. But they are the leaders of the 67 senators who have the unenviable task of weighing the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua during Senate hearings on Wednesday and Thursday.

Of the 67 senators, 34 are affiliated to the ruling Kenya Kwanza alliance, while 32 are allied to the Azimio la Umoja coalition.

The senators are troops of President William Ruto, retired President Uhuru Kenyatta and Azimio leader Raila Odinga. Leaders who spoke to People Daily believe that the silent trio holds the key to the DP’s future, with the argument that the senators will ultimately seek their guidance on the removal.

While the impeachment remains thoroughly a legislative process, the political nuances around it continue to spark emotive talk in public spaces.

Though Gachagua continues to appeal to retired President Kenyatta’s Mt Kenya constituency, it was apparent that the Ruto-Raila axis in Parliament closed rank to impeach the DP.

Same language
National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah and his minority counterpart Junet Mohamed spoke the same language during the impeachment trial, triggering murmurs on the thinking of their bosses.

High-profile leaders who had a conversation with People Daily could barely disguise the fact that the three could be the only remaining voices in efforts to rescue the DP – if they decide to do so.

“The only person who can save the Deputy President is Raila. With the arrangement under the broad-based government they [Raila and Ruto] can get a majority in the Senate to support the Deputy President,” said Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni.

“Raila has an opportunity to stop the painful things that are being perpetrated by Ruto. Uhuru might not be available for such an engagement because he has been insulted a lot. But he must be keen to ensure that the country is peaceful and Mt Kenya is not crushed completely.”

The retired President is the Jubilee party leader and was the subject of hostility from the Ruto campaign, with Gachagua as the main point man in Mt Kenya. The High Court last week handed Uhuru control of Jubilee from Ruto’s patronage.

“The position of Jubilee is that its members in the Senate should not support the impeachment. Kenyans must be wary that Ruto is looking for absolute power and once he achieves it, he will not require Raila,” said Kioni, a strong ally of Uhuru.

“It is a game of self-preservation. Raila can prevent this situation by talking to the numbers on his side.”
Legislative process

Among the 67 senators, 34 are affiliated to President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance, 32 are allied to Azimio, while Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah was elected on an NRA ticket. Jubilee, on the other hand, has five senators.

ODM party leader and Kisumu Governor Anyang Nyong’o and one of his deputies, Kisii Governor Simba Arati, were careful not pull Raila into the debate, decidedly arguing that the impeachment was a “legislative process”.

According to Nyong’o, Gachagua’s impeachment was “a sealed deal”. His argument is that the three were unlikely to activate their battalions in the Senate to overturn a decision of the National Assembly that was reinforced by the people’s participation.

Of the 224,907 Kenyans who took part in public participation, 146,429 supported Gachagua’s impeachment, 76,026 rejected and 2,452 failed to fill the relevant form, a report tabled in the National Assembly showed.

“Gachagua’s impeachment is a sealed deal. The three have troops in the House and can influence them to behave in a certain way,” said Nyong’o in a conversation with People Daily.

“But it is doubtful whether they can intervene in a manner that overturns the overwhelming majority decision by the National Assembly. The only options left for Gachagua is to mobilise at the Senate and maybe move to the court.

“If they were to intervene, they would have done so at the National Assembly. Gachagua should have done a better job at the National Assembly. The situation at the Senate is fluid. This is a parliamentary process and the three are not members and have no locus standi in court.”

’Right thing’
Arati, an ODM deputy party leader, sounded keen to divorce Raila and the party from the process but indicated that senators from the Orange movement were expected to do the “right thing”.

“As a party, we are not in any way involved in the ongoing process to impeach the Deputy President. We have not given any instructions to our senators,” Arati said.

“What is happening is in the legislative arm of government. We are asking our senators to do what is right according to the Constitution, according to the merits of the case presented before them. Our senators are advised to perform their roles according to the Constitution.”

The impeachment move is dicey at the Council of Governors, which is made up of members from both sides of the political divide and which more often tends to reach decisions by consensus.

“This is a legislative matter. The Council of Governors has not taken a position on the matter. It has no role on this matter, ” said CoG chairman Ahmed Abdullahi of Wajir.

Ruto is on a “self preservation scheme and knows that he has lost the entire Mt Kenya vote”, Kioni said.
Plausible explanation’

“He fears the bloc and believes that he can only survive if he splinters the bloc come 2027. Under Ruto, the health sector has collapsed, education has collapsed, the Adani deal stinks to high heavens, the social support system has collapsed, the economy is on it’s knees, plus all the other failures associated with the KK regime,” Kioni argued.

“The kidnapping and extrajudicial killings await his explanation. He cannot face Kenyans and give them any plausible explanation. They will term what he says as lies. Nobody can talk to him about Gachagua. He is the sacrificial lamb. Perhaps Raila, through his numbers on the floor. Ruto is stone-deaf.”

Headstrong stance
Gachagua has lately softened his headstrong stance against retired President Uhuru and Raila.

“My brother and longtime confidant, President Uhuru Kenyatta, had told us that Raila is a good man. President William Ruto convinced us otherwise. And we abandoned our son, Uhuru Kenyatta, and we decided to go with President William Ruto,” Gachagua said in a recent interview.

“Now President William Ruto has told us exactly what President Uhuru Kenyatta had said, that Raila is a good man, we can work with him. If two Presidents say a man is good, are you to argue with them?”
Court action may not come to the DP’s rescue, said former Law Society of Kenya president Nelson Havi.

“Gachagua will cease being DP on the vote of the Senate. Unlike [removing] a judge, which can be appealed to the Supreme Court, impeachment of [the] President and DP is final and incapable of challenge. The Constitution did not contemplate judicial intervention on impeachment,” he argued.