by Jeremiah Kiplang’at

Leading political alliances are targeting an outright presidential win in the first round of the August 9 General-Election to avoid an expensive run off.

 The Constitution requires that one must get at least 50 per cent plus one of the votes cast to be declared the outright winner of a presidential contest. In addition, they must get at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in more than half of the 47 counties.

 If not, there will be a run-off poll within 30 days of the General Election pitting the first two candidates against each other. In the fresh election, the one who gets a simple majority is declared the winner of the presidential race.

 The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), has so far over 21 million registered voters and is set to add more when it concludes the ongoing mass registration this Sunday.

If the country was to record a high turnout of 85 per cent in August polls like it did in 2013, then a winner of the coming elections must garner over nine million votes to be declared the outright winner in the first round.

 It is this high threshold that has nudged Azimio La Umoja Movement led by Raila Odinga and Kenya Kwanza led by Deputy President William Ruto, to engage their high gears in search of votes with only six months to the elections. They hope to garner enough support to cushion them against a tormenting run-off.

 The One Kenya Alliance (OKA) led by Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka with the support of Kanu chairman Gideon Moi and Narc-Kenya’s Martha Karua, are also seeking to cause a major upset, by trouncing their rivals in the first round after warning against a perception that the election was a two-horse race.

 A political data analyst, Franklin Kinoti, said Raila’s chances of hitting the magic number was on how safely he plays his politics with the shaky OKA team after losing Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi and his Ford Kenya counterpart Moses Wetangula to his nemesis, Ruto.

 “The election equation of Raila will be safe if only Kalonzo delivers his Ukambani region to Azimio to guarantee he maintains his stable constant of 44 per cent of the national vote, then get six per cent top up from elsewhere to clinch the magical statistic of 50  per cent +1 vote,” said Kinoti.

Pertinent issues

He added: “The person in OKA to bridge that gap is Martha Karua deputising Raila. First, because Karua represents the Mt Kenya region that has denied Raila the six per cent to clinch the presidency in three successive elections. Second, she is the most preferred running mate by Mt Kenya voters because in her hands they feel safer  in post-Uhuru presidency.”

 For Ruto, he said the chances rely heavily on the reception of his Hustler’s nation narrative and if he can convince Kalonzo to back his bid. 

“Ruto’s chances of winning relies heavily on his Hustler narrative remaining stable till the elections in August, in which case he will have succeeded in challenging the ethnic voting patterns that defines the nation’s political culture,” Kinoti said.

While empirically it is known that changing a culture is a process and not an event, his sustained campaigns since 2018 indicates it is possible to pull a first despite the odds. Another path that could guarantee Ruto the presidency is Ukambani region whether Kalonzo joins Azimio or not. 

“It is argued that the region is not comfortable with Kalonzo teaming up with Raila again, whether he is guaranteed the running-mate position or not, arising out of perceived successive betrayal of Ukambani people by Raila,” said Kinoti, who is also leader Party for Peace and Democracy.

 In the two election cycles since the 2010 Constitution, the country has not gone to a run off although it came close to one in 2013.

President Kenyatta was declared the winner after garnering 50 percent of the votes plus a paltry 8,000. This was, however, enough to push him over the line and was declared the winner despite spirited rejection by rival Raila, who unsuccessfully challenged the result in the Supreme Court.

 In 2017, Uhuru’s victory in the first round was annulled by the top court because of electoral malpractices that it found had been proved beyond doubt.

However, Raila, declined to participate in the repeat polls claiming the electoral body had not addressed pertinent issues he raised in court.

Uhuru was declared the winner of the repeat polls despite not facing a serious challenger. The two have since patched up their differences and the President is solidly supporting Raila to succeed him.

 Mudavadi, a key partner in Kenya Kwanza, has said the odds of the new alliance winning the elections in the first round were higher. He added they had decided to unite with Ruto to boost their chances of scooping victory in August polls in round one.    

Delivery victory

 “We have come together so that we finish this election in round one because this country cannot afford to go to a run-off. This country is broke, we should be done with elections in round one. As Ford Kenya and ANC, we sat down with UDA and we said bigger is better and if we unite, and as we welcome more Kenyans, we will win with a landslide,” he said.

 Raila is also banking on the Azimio La Umoja Movement to deliver victory at the initial attempt in August and his allies are doing everything within their abilities to ensure this is achieved.

Cotu boss Francis Atwoli-a key Raila ally, has said Azimio La Umoja will register a clear victory in August claiming there will be no need for a run-off.