The grim numbers of poor Kenyans can now be revealed after the latest poverty report painted a damning picture of the struggles Kenyan families are going through to put food on the table.

According to the latest data from the National Treasury, 19.1 million Kenyans were living below the poverty line in 2021 — representing about 38.6 per cent of the total national population.

Any Kenyan earning Sh7,193 in towns and anyone earning Sh3,947 and below in rural areas in 2021 was classified as poor. That means the affected Kenyans were not earning enough money to meet their basic needs, including affording enough food for their daily consumption. In all, two in every five Kenyans were living in poverty in 2021, according to the data that highlights the large gap the government needs to bridge if it is to implement policies that will improve the quality of life for majority of the citizens.

Compared to the 2015-2016 financial year, there were more Kenyans who fell into poverty in the years leading to 2021, meaning that the poverty distribution curve is going from bad to worse. In 2015, 36.1 per cent of Kenyans were classified as poor. This snaked up to 38.6 per cent two years ago.

On the positive side, however, there were fewer Kenyans who were poor in 2021 compared to 2020, when the economy was adversely affected by the shocks caused by the global Covid-19 pandemic. In 2020, a staggering 42.9 per cent of Kenyans — dangerously close to half of the population — were living in poverty. A bigger percentage of the poor were living in rural areas. At the time, town dwellers needed to earn — and spend — a minimum of Sh6,915 to escape the poverty trap. Their rural counterparts, on the other hand, needed a minimum of Sh3,783.

This trend also implies that the value of money went down between 2020 and 2021, piling pressure on the poor to make more in their quest to escape from the trap of financial embarrassment. And although they needed to earn more to cross the poverty line, the flipside is that with the economy recovering from the Covid-19 shocks, there were, by comparison, fewer people who remained poor. This trend has been borne out by the Economic Survey, 2022, which indicates that in 2021, the economy expanded by 7.5 per cent — hence creating more employment (and income generating) opportunities. By contrast, in the previous year, it had contracted to 0.3 per cent, and this explains the Covid-19 lay-offs that left more Kenyans poorer that year, a situation made worse by prolonged drought that also hurt rural economies. “In 2021, all economic activities registered positive growths except Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing,” the Economic Survey states. All three are rural-based sectors.

This finding dovetails into the latest data from Treasury, which indicates that the percentage of poor people is perennially higher in rural areas compared to urban areas. For instance, for every 10 people living in rural areas in 2021, four were poor, largely because rural economies depend on rain fed agriculture. By contrast, for every ten people in towns, 3.4 were poor. Manufacturing, financial and insurance services and wholesale/retail trade — all of which are urban-based — recorded growth in the same year, and this accounts for the lower levels of poverty in urban compared to rural areas. “To better understand poverty,” Treasury Cabinet Secretary Njuguna Ndung’u says in the poverty latest report, “the concept of food poverty is important.”

He goes on to explain that food poverty is “lack of enough food to perform daily activities or having inadequate food to provide a minimum calorific energy required per person per month.”

And this is where the economic challenges facing many Kenyans become even more pronounced. In 2021, three out of ten Kenyans were unable to afford their basic food needs. Those in rural areas were more adversely affected (at 32.2 per cent) compared to their urban counterparts (at 26.8 per cent).

But in 2021 and 2022, Kenya was going through the throes of a devastating drought that left families in 23 counties at risk of starvation, prompting government interventions through the supply of relief food to the most affected and maize flour subsidies for urban families. The floor subsidies were discontinued after the August election with the new government shifting priority from subsidising consumption to subsidising production. Since then, it has offered subsidised fertiliser, seeds and other inputs to farmers, after removing subsidies in retail prices on maize flour.

Steady progress

Looking at the trends, there is painfully slow but steady progress towards overcoming food poverty, which can also be described as a person’s inability to afford food even when markets are overflowing with commodities.

In recent history, 2020 — the year of the Covid-19 pandemic — registered the highest number of Kenyans who were classified as food poor. They could see the Mama Mboga across the street selling groceries, but could not afford to buy them, at least not enough to satisfy their daily calorie needs. That year, 34.4 per cent of Kenyans were classified as food poor. Again, rural folk were worse off at 35.1 per cent, compared to their urban counterparts at 33 per cent.

Historically, food poverty has reduced marginally from 32 per cent in 2015/2016 to 30.5 per cent in 2021, meaning the country has been making incremental but not sufficient progress. According to Prof Ndung’u, 15.1 million Kenyans were food poor in 2021. In a population of about 48 million, that translates to about one in every three Kenyans.

However, this is not just data. These are Kenyans who need the government to put in place measures that will increase food production on the one hand and lower its cost on the other.

“Why does it matter to monitor the status, trends and where the poor are?” Prof Ndung’u asks in his report.

Because, he says, this will help the government to come up with policies that will ensure the country makes progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal Number 1 on ending extreme poverty. With only seven years to achieve this goal a set by the United Nations, Kenya still has a long journey ahead and success, at the current pace, is not guaranteed.

The CS says the monitoring also ensures that the relevant government agencies can measure the effectiveness of the interventions taken and the impact they have in reducing poverty.

In this year’s Budget, the Treasury has indicated that it will prioritise tax investments in manufacturing, irrigation, housing and education. The first three, being labour intensive, can create opportunities for poverty reduction by creating jobs and value chains in the short term. For instance, in the Budget estimates to be presented in Parliament next week, the State Department for Water and Sanitation has been allocated Sh55.9 billion, mostly to construct dams in various parts of the country as part of a strategy to reduce reliance on rain to sustain agricultural production.

Education, on the other hand, offers a long-term solution to poverty eradication. Past health and demographic surveys published by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics have indicated, for instance, that when both boys and girls spend more time in the education system, they reduce their likelihood of adulthood poverty.

According to Prof Ndung’u, such data, including the latest poverty report, a summary of which was released yesterday, inform government decision on how much tax revenue to allocate to social sectors such as health and education.

– The writer is the Managing Editor, People Daily