Negotiated deals to shape choice of 2022 leaders

The agreement on sharing of various political seats among communities in certain regions in the country is set to be put to test in the next General Election.

 Focus will be Nakuru, Narok, Elgeyo Marakwet, Uasin Gishu, Kisii, Nyamira, Siaya, Bungoma, Teso, Vihiga, Kakamega, Teso and Migori counties where communities and clans have in the past determined  election of leaders.

 In Migori, for instance, while the dominant Luo community lands the post of governor, an informal political pact requires that the deputy hails from the minority Kuria. 

The same case applied in Narok where a Maasai is the governor while the deputy is a Kipsigis who constitute a considerable minority in the county.  

In the case of Nakuru, the deputy governor has been a Kalenjin both in the reigns of founding governor Kinuthia Mbugua and incumbent Lee Kinyanjui, in order to accommodate the county’s political demographics and ensure mutual coexistence among local communities.

In 2013, the Kuria negotiated with Luos to have Wilfred Machage serve as the first senator with Okoth Obado as governor while MP Dennita Ghati was elected as the Woman Rep.

Ghati who is now a nominated MP, said that negotiated democracy can only work if the people who have entered into such arrangements are honest.

“In counties where communities trust and respect each other, it works. For negotiated democracy to work, leaders of dominant communities must respect each other and work together. If this does not happen, it can never work,” said Ghati.

Political analyst Matiko Bohoko argued that negotiated democracy creates some symmetry in power balance, particularly in regions where minorities will never gather enough votes to win seats.

Matiko, who hails from Migori County and mid-wifed the 2013 Migori power sharing deal, said the same is likely to be replicated in 2022.

“It is likely to occur in Migori once again.  If Kurias were well organised, they could easily win the gubernatorial seat in 2022  if  Luos field strong candidates on other parties for the same seat,” said Bohoko.

Best leaders

United States International University don Macharia Munene however stated that negotiated democracy denies people a chance to pick the best leaders in an election.

However, he said the power sharing deals are only possible of there is an agreement among communities and the political actors involved.

 “Negotiated democracy is a suggestion. For instance, a gubernatorial candidate in a cosmopolitan area might go for a deputy from another community, and may be voted for because he is seen to be embracing diversity. This might not work in all areas,” said Macharia.

He added:  “Negotiated democracy has intensified parochial politics and compromised entrepreneurship, talent and skills.

Proponents of negotiated democracy, the council of elders or sultans, have turned themselves into tenderpreneurs.”

 Busia County is dominated by the Luyhia and teso communities.  For the past two terms, Governor Sospeter Ojaamong who has been deputised twice by a Luyhia governor, is under pressure to endorse a Luhya candidate to succeed him. 

In past elections, he has relied on the solid Teso vote aided by pockets of Nambale to win the governorship against a crowded field of Luyhia candidates.

And in Vihiga, the contest for the seats revolves around power sharing deals between the majority Maragoli, the  Banyore and the minority Tiriki. 

In the last election, Governor Moses Akaranga picked a deputy governor from Bunyore and supported  George Khaniri who hails from Tiriki for Senate.   

For his part,  incumbent governor Wilbur Ottichilo who is from Bunyore, was forced to pick a running mate from Maragoli with Tiriki retaining Senator Khaniri.

Service delivery

In Uasin Gishu County, the battle is always between Nandi and the Keiyos; the dominant communities in the county.

Already, Keiyo’s  have put a spirited case  for the Uasin Gishu   governorship  currently held by Jackson Mandago who is serving his second term.

ODM  North Rift coordinator  Kipkorir Menjo said negotiated democracy  might not play a major ipart n Uasin Gishu politics in the next General Election.

 “The issue of negotiated democracy is fading away because we have a younger generation keen on service delivery and performance.

As long  as those elected respect the rule of law and equitably share the resources, nobody will care which tribe the governor or deputy governor comes from,” said Menjo.

In Narok, the top seats are shared between the Maasais and the Kipsigis who occupy a considerable portion of the devolved unit.

Narok Senator Ledama Ole Kina said that in 2022, negotiated democracy in the Maa land will not hold, since they are the majority.

“Negotiated democracy in this age is hogwash. We as the Maa community have decided that we welcome any other person to live and conduct their businesses in Narok but for the top leadership, non-locals should allow the locals to lead, ” said the senator.

Ledama further charged that it is only fair for the non-locals to vie for other seats like the Ward Rep and let the locals take up the governorship, Woman Rep and the Senate post.

In Siaya, top positions have been negotiated according to the three main populous sub-clans Ugenya, Alego and Gem who control the politics of the county while in Kisumu it’s between Kano, Kisumo, Nyakach and Seme sub –clans that decide who gets what at the election.

In Siaya for instance, some leaders have said that Alego will shelve its ambition of fielding a gubernatorial candidate in 2022 for a candidate from the Ugenya sub-clan while the senatorial position will not go to Bondo.

Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi told People Daily that they will share slots equitably among the five sub counties in Siaya County.

“Alego Usonga will take a break from fielding a gubernatorial candidate in 2022. Senator Orengo is our candidate for governorship.

Alego will angle for the position of deputy governor while Bondo is pushing for Oburu Oginga to be the next Senator for Siaya,” said Atandi.

Although Kano in Kisumu boasts of being the largest populous sub-clan, it failed to recapture the governorship and ended up with the Senate slot which is occupied by Fred Outa, with the Seme-born  Anyang Nyong’o clinching the governorship.

In Marsabit, Gabra, Burji, Rendille and Borana clans decide who becomes the governor, deputy governor, senator and the Woman Rep, while top seats are distributed evenly among the Degodia, Aljuran and Ogaden  clans in Wajir.

East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) member Fatuma Ibrahim Ali contends that though clan elders will continue to influence which individuals are elected for various seats, the system disadvantages women.

Elders factor

“Negotiated democracy sometimes does not favour women especially from North Eastern region. The elders decide who vies for what seat and from which clan. They hold power on the issue of negotiated democracy,” said Fatuma.

According to Fatuma, women are marginalised because they are not represented in the council of elders that allocate the seats and no clan wants to be represented by a woman. 

In Mandera, the top seats are mainly occupied by the Garre and the Degodia clans while in Garissa it is mainly the Ogaden community that takes the lion’s share with a few members from the Degodia clan.

In Central region, for instance Laikipia, the battle is between Laikipia East and Laikipia West. In Nyeri its North versus South and in Murang’a its North vs South.

In the three counties in the Mount Kenya region, if one side produces a governor, the deputy must be from the other side and vice versa.