Moses Kuria warns presidential hopefuls of Kenya’s grim economic status
By Mustafa Juma, May 3, 2025President William Ruto’s Senior Advisor in the Council of Economic Advisors based at State House, Moses Kuria, has laid bare the daunting fiscal challenges awaiting the country’s next president.
Kuria’s analysis of the 2025-2026 budget estimates paints a grim picture of Kenya’s financial landscape, where a staggering 93.1% of the Ksh 4.2 trillion budget is locked into non-negotiable expenses, leaving little room for meaningful development or policy innovation.
Taking to his official X account on Saturday, May 3, 2025, the former Public Service Cabinet Secretary said he sometimes wonders whether Kenya’s presidential hopefuls know what they would be getting into when they declare their ambitions.
“Sometimes I wonder whether people who want to be President of Kenya know what they would be getting into. Looking closely at budget estimates for 2025-2026, picture this: Ksh1.3 trillion out of Ksh4.2 trillion will go to payment and servicing of debts as well as pensions. This is not negotiable, and we can never default on that. The price to pay for our thoughtless expansionism in the past,” Kuria’s statement read in part.
Kuria’s budget estimates analysis
He went ahead to explain that another staggering Ksh1.7 trillion goes to financing recurrent expenditure of the national government, with Ksh680 billion of the said amount taking up salaries of the civil service.
“Another Ksh1.7 trillion will go to finance recurrent expenditure of the national government. Of which Ksh 680 billion is for salaries for our bloated and inefficient civil service, which you can not reform because jobless Kenyans will go to the streets to defend the civil servants who continue to eat everything at the expense of the rest of Kenyans,” he stated.
Kuria went ahead to criticise some of the government expenditures, terming the Ksh 400 billion that is transferred to parastatals as useless.
“Still on the National Government Recurrent Expenditure, we are officially a communist country. Karl Marx is very proud of us. Free education, Pesa ya Wazee, fertilisers, health, etc., at a cost of Ksh700 billion. Ebu jaribu kugusa any of that. Or to stop the Ksh400 billion that is transferred to useless and inefficient parastatals that you can not sell because courts will grant injunctions as freely as sweets at a Christmas party,” Kuria wrote on X.
Little money for development
According to Kuria, the only amount the president can discretionarily allocate for development is a paltry Ksh291 billion or 6.9% of the 4.2 trillion budget.
“And counties are waiting for Ksh405 billion in equitable sharing, Ksh 59 billion in the Equalization Fund, and Ksh10 billion in conditional grants, totalling Ksh471 billion. Try to negotiate that or question how that huge amount is spent, and you are an enemy of devolution. At the end of the day, the only amount you can discretionarily allocate for development is a paltry Ksh291 billion or 6.9% of the 4.2 trillion. 93.1% – you have no say. Wishing all the best to all our beloved presidential candidates,” he said.