Back in 2004, there was a hotly contested by election in Kisauni constituency. Ananiah Mwaboza of National Labour Party won easily with the support of the anti-reform wing within the National Rainbow Coalition. 

The anti-reform then was just as pronounced as it is now and there were concerted efforts by different forces to ensure that then contestant for the parliamentary seat Hassan Joho; lost.

The recent political landscape has seen the anti-Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) forces field candidates against their own political parties. 

The Jubilee defeat in Juja constituency and Rurii ward mini-polls added to previous loses in Gaturi ward in Murang’a, London ward in Nakuru and Lake-view ward in Naivasha.

These seats were won by parties associated with the Hustler nation, UDA and the Peoples’ Empowerment Party (PEP).

There are a number of factors at play in a by-election, but politics being a high premium perception game, the Hustler nation has certainly capitalised on these wins, especially the Juja win to build traction and rally support.

They will build on these victories and hype the perception that their movement has clawed support from their parent party, Jubilee, and this is understandable as part of corporate political communication. 

The Hustler nation bloggers and supporters are blowing the by elections wins like they have won the 2022 General Election.

Their strategy is to get as many people as possible to believe that they are a formidable force and either join them or stop propagating a contrary opinion. 

We may want to situate by-elections broadly and borrow from the experiences of the past.

You see, by elections are peculiar in a number of ways and they rarely give good indicators of what is to come in the Genertal Election. 

One, the choice of candidates. Sometimes the choices border on sentimental values while sometimes the clout of the party means that the infighting can be ferocious and a party ends up with the wrong candidate.

This happened in Msambweni and an ODM candidate ended up winning as a Hustler nation candidate.  

Two, there is the issue of low voter turnout and a situation where the party that goes out to get more people to go vote carries the day.

In fact, parties like UDA and PEP that have a lot to prove have this advantage of focusing on just about 20 per cent of registered voters.

Such targeting of voters to get the number has seen parties employ both orthodox strategies and in the recent past unorthodox ones like voter bribery on the elections day and intimidation.

These strategies have proved effective given the small population targeted. 

Three, the General Election is held on a public holiday and the voter turnout is always fairly high.

Scientifically a by-election in a ward or a constituency with a voter turnout of around 20 per cent  cannot be generalised to the entire nation that has 290 constituencies.

Moreover, politicians who in by-elections target all their efforts in individual and isolated electoral units, will definitely be fighting for elections in their own backyards.  

We saw how ODM invested by sending its elected leaders down to Bonchari, Hustler  nation did the same both in Bonchari and Juja while Jubilee did not seem to understand what they were up against. 

The disadvantage to Jubilee is two-fold: first as the ruling party in power, just like others globally, Jubilee will be judged on perceived failures with little attention paid to grand development projects since 2013.

Second, a part of Jubilee is essentially rocking it from within by amplifying these perceived failures.

But it is a wakeup call to the Jubilee leadership. The disruption that is the Hustler nation headed by the very people who are supposed to spearhead Jubilee development agenda,  will seize any opportunity to rock the boat from within. Kiambaa is the next battle-front.   — [email protected]