How Trans Nzoia’s failed rains will affect Kenya’s food basket
By Sharon Atieno, July 4, 2026Poor rainfall in Trans Nzoia County has dealt a major blow to maize production, raising concerns over Kenya’s food security as farmers count losses and warn of significantly reduced harvests this season.
The county, widely regarded as the country’s breadbasket, is expected to record a sharp decline in output after prolonged dry conditions destroyed thousands of acres of crops.
According to the Trans Nzoia County Department of Agriculture, more than 50,000 acres out of the 250,000 acres under maize cultivation have been affected by the drought, with production projected to decline by more than 40 per cent in 2026.
The drop is expected to have far-reaching implications for national food supplies, given that the county normally produces more than seven million bags of maize annually.
Harvests expected to decline
For many farmers, the failed rains have wiped out months of investment, leaving them uncertain about their livelihoods and the next planting season.
Farmer James Mutinda said the drought had drastically reduced his expected harvest.
“Mwaka ikiwa nzuri tunavuna karibu gunia 300 hadi 350 kwa ekari kumi, lakini mwaka huu kufikisha gunia 150 itakuwa vigumu. Mambo ya upanzi mwaka huu kutakuwa na hasara sana,” he said.
Besides maize, he noted that vegetables and fruits have also been affected by the prolonged dry spell.
“Sio mahindi tu imeharibika, mboga na matunda pia vimeharibika. Tunaomba serikali itupunguzie bei ya mbolea,” Mutinda appealed.
Another farmer, Kennedy Wambua, said many growers had exhausted their savings on farm inputs only to watch their crops wither before maturity.
Farmers seek government intervention
With harvests expected to shrink significantly, farmers are now calling on the national government to reduce the cost of fertiliser and other agricultural inputs to cushion them from further losses and enable them to prepare for the next planting season.
They argue that affordable inputs would help restore production once weather conditions improve.
Agriculture experts warn that reduced maize production in Trans Nzoia could trigger supply shortages, push up the price of maize flour and increase the country’s reliance on imports if production in other grain-growing regions also declines.
County shifts to climate-smart farming
Speaking during celebrations to mark the International Day of Cooperatives in Trans Nzoia County, Governor George Natembeya said the county government was rolling out measures to help farmers adapt to changing weather patterns.
He said the county plans to train farmers on alternative crop production and climate-smart agriculture to reduce reliance on a single cropping season.
“Nataka tuone kama itafika mahali tuwe na two crops ili shamba isiwe inakaa bure baada ya kuvunwa mazao,” Natembeya said.
The governor noted that diversifying crop production would help farmers utilise their land throughout the year, improve incomes and strengthen resilience against increasingly unpredictable weather, which has become a growing challenge for one of Kenya’s most important food-producing counties.