High-stakes mini polls to cost taxpayers Sh1 billion

Taxpayers will spend more than Sh1 billion on the 24 by-elections slated for November this year.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries (IEBC) has issued a Gazette Notice on the by-elections to fill one Senate seat, six National Assembly seats and 17 Member of County Assembly (MCA) positions.

The areas where the mini polls will be held include Baringo county where the senatorial seat fell vacant following the death of William Cheptumo. By-elections will also be held to elect MPs for Banissa, Kasipul, Magarini, Malava, Mbeere North and Ugunja constituencies.

In addition, the commission will conduct mini polls to replace ward reps in Angata Nanyokie, Chemundu/Kapng’etuny, Chewani, Fafi, Kariobangi North, Kisa East, Metkei, Mumbuni North, Kabuchai/Chwele, Narok Town and Purko. Others are Tembelio Ward, Nyansiongo, Nyamaiya, Ekerenyo, Lake Zone and Nanaam Ward in Turkana County, respectively.

IEBC Chief Executive Marjan Hussein Marjan told People Daily that the commission has made the request to the National Treasury to release the funds for the mini polls in time to, among other things, procure election materials, conduct voter education and train staff.

Funds shortage

“We have already planned for the by-elections and put together a budget. We have requested just Sh1 billion from the National Treasury to support 24 by-elections scheduled for November 27, 2025,” said Marjan.

He went on: “That budget covers everything from logistics and staffing to voter education and procurement of election materials. Once the funds are allocated, we are ready to move forward.”

Marjan, however, charged that the commission is facing an acute shortage of funds, which, if not addressed immediately, will hamper the preparations for the by-elections.

“Right now, we’re in the preparatory phase. One of the main challenges we’re facing is getting the necessary funding in time—without it, key activities like procurement, recruitment, and voter education can’t kick off,” said Marjan.

He went on: “But we’re monitoring things closely and will keep the public updated as we move forward.”

This even as National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi indicated that the electoral agency could be compelled to reuse ballot boxes and other materials procured during the 2022 election to cut costs.

Mbadi said ongoing budget constraints mean that the government is pressing all state agencies, including IEBC, to operate more efficiently and avoid unnecessary expenditures.

Kenya’s elections are among the most expensive on the continent. For instance, Kenya spent approximately Sh36 billion on the 2022 elections, with the electoral body accounting for Sh34.5 billion in direct costs and the remainder in indirect expenditure.

The 2022 elections involved 22,120,258 registered voters, which means the commission spent about Sh2,000 per voter.

“There are things that you buy and you don’t dispose of immediately. Why do you buy them every election cycle? Every election cycle, you want new things. Even support boxes?” Mbadi posed in reference to reusable items such as ballot boxes and surveillance equipment.

“We’re asking tough questions. IEBC must be efficient. The cost of elections in this country is simply too high.”

Mbadi cited a similar exercise undertaken with the Kenya National Examinations Council, where the ministry successfully slashed projected spending by nearly 50 per cent after rejecting an inflated procurement list.

Political showdown

Appearing before the Senate Standing Committee on Devolution and Intergovernmental Relations, Mbadi said a similar approach is now being taken with IEBC.

Mbadi’s proposal comes at a time when a political showdown is looming as parties prepare to face off in the by-elections seen as an acid political test ahead of the 2027 polls.

Globally, India, with the world’s largest number of voters (910.5 million), as of 2022, spent an average of Sh1,000 per voter, while the UK spent an average of Sh480 per voter during the two countries’ recent elections.

But as the commission prepares to conduct its first by-elections, questions are being raised about its interpretation of the law.

According to Nairobi Senator and ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, the commission ignored the law on selecting the next person from the same category in which Mbadi was nominated

“There are two back-to-back manifestly flawed decisions by the new electoral commission that are enough cause for alarm. Mbadi was nominated under the “workers” category, so the person who was next in line should have been from the same category,” charged Sifuna.

Sifuna further argued that Article 101(4)b requires IEBC to conduct by-elections within 90 days of issuance of writs, adding that the date the commission has set for the by-elections is more than the legally set days.

“Unless my maths is wrong, November 27th is more than 100 days away.”

Already, the commission has also called for the registration of the Election Observers and Media Accreditation for the upcoming polls.

The mini polls are the first major test for the newly reconstituted IEBC under the leadership of Erastus Ethekon.

With his appointment heralding a new chapter for the commission, focus is on whether the revamped IEBC can deliver credible by-elections — a crucial benchmark for rebuilding public trust ahead of the high-stakes 2027 elections.

Ethekon has already come out strongly against critics questioning the commission’s readiness.

In recent public addresses, he dismissed attempts to discredit IEBC, affirming the commission’s constitutional independence and pledging that the by-elections will be conducted in a free, fair, and impartial manner.

The timing of the by-elections is politically symbolic. Coming barely two years before the next elections, the November mini-polls will test both the machinery of the IEBC and the popularity of Kenya’s political camps.

Already, the opposition has launched campaigns spearheaded by political heavyweights — former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i.

The trio is rallying under the clarion call “wantam”, advocating for President William Ruto to serve only one term.

Their message is direct: Ruto’s administration has failed to meet the expectations of Kenyans and must be shown the door come 2027.

However, the “wantam” campaign has been swiftly rebuffed by Ruto himself and some ODM leaders led by Raila Odinga, who maintains that only the electorate has the mandate to determine the president’s fate — not political actors driven by personal grievances or ideological opposition to the current regime. The by-elections have drawn comparisons to the so-called “Little General Elections” of 1966, held during the presidency of Jomo Kenyatta, and later mirrored during Moi’s tenure.

Testing ground

Back then, mini-elections often served as barometers for shifting political allegiances and emerging ideological currents.

Similarly, the 2025 by-elections are expected to serve as a referendum on the Ruto administration and a testing ground for opposition momentum.

Both government and opposition parties are preparing to field candidates in the various contests, and fierce campaigns are expected in key wards and constituencies.

The outcomes could reshape political alliances and strategies as the nation inches closer to 2027.

With political temperatures rising and IEBC under the spotlight, the by-elections are shaping up to be more than just routine democratic exercises.

Political scientist Wilson Agenya said: “They will be a test of institutional capacity, political maturity, and the enduring resilience of Kenya’s democratic processes.

“Whether they become a platform for electoral reform and renewed public confidence or descend into controversy and contestation will largely depend on how well IEBC manages the process — and how responsibly political actors choose to engage,” he said.

But one thing is clear: the road to 2027 has already begun — and it starts with November 27 as the political momentum in Kenya gathers pace.

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