Arab Gulf nations have been watching nervously as neighbouring Iran has been engulfed in nationwide protests. United States President Donald Trump has threatened military action against Tehran – a move many Gulf powers fear would plunge the region into chaos.

Behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia has been lobbying the US administration to refrain from striking Iran, while Qatar and Oman have been focused on diplomatic outreach between Iranian and American officials.

The three countries shifted into high-gear diplomacy to de-escalate tensions after reports on Wednesday suggested that contact between Washington and Tehran had broken down, raising fears that an attack was imminent, observers said.

“They were all concerned because all traditional channels [between the US and Iran] were not being utilised, at least from the US side,” said Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a Gulf analyst and non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute.

“GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] officials didn’t know what the US intentions were,” said Muhanad Seloom, assistant professor in critical security studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.

Regional spillover

Tensions escalated after Trump repeatedly threatened military action in Iran over the bloodshed taking place there.

Authorities in Iran say that more than 100 security force personnel have been killed in clashes with protesters, while opposition activists say the real toll includes more than 1,000 protesters, since demonstrations erupted in late December. Al Jazeera cannot independently verify these figures.

Trump called on Iranians to take over state institutions, promising that “help is on the way”. While it wasn’t clear what kind of attack he was considering, his remarks left the region bracing for an escalation.

Arab Gulf nations fear that a military strike on Iran could disrupt oil prices, shatter their reputation as safe havens for business, and trigger an Iranian retaliation on their soil.

It wouldn’t be the first time. In 2019, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen struck Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, temporarily reducing Saudi oil production. Last June, Tehran attacked Qatar’s Al Udeid airbase, which hosts American troops, after the US struck a key nuclear facility in Iran.

Iran gave ample warning that it would carry out the attack, which marked the end of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, yet it created a precedent. And while that conflict weakened Iran’s military capabilities, the Islamic Republic still has an arsenal to hurt US interests in the region.

“Iran has ballistic missiles, supersonic missiles and militia groups around, so if they are given a reason to hit, they would,” said Seloom.

On Wednesday, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had warned regional countries, from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Turkiye, that US bases in those nations would be attacked if the US targets Iran. That was followed by the drawdown of ‍some personnel ‍from the Al Udeid airbase.

Speaking to reporters in the White House later on Wednesday, Trump said he had received information that “the killing in Iran is stopping, is stopped … and there’s no plan for executions”. While some interpreted that as an off-ramp to de-escalation, the US president did not rule out military action.