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Experts warn of rising food insecurity amid climate and geopolitical shifts

Experts warn of rising food insecurity amid climate and geopolitical shifts
The resurgence of great power rivalry is pushing countries to prioritise self-sufficiency in major crops, often at a high financial and environmental cost. PHOTO/Ninno JackJr/Unsplash

Agricultural experts and scientists have identified the vital link between climate change and food security, however, there is also an increasing realisation that food supply also depends on geopolitics.  

Major turns in world affairs over the past 10 years have led to this development that has seen shifts in policies over the entrenchment of differing national and international interests.

Climate change significantly threatens global food security by affecting crop yields, livestock production and fishing industries, leading to reduced food availability and increased prices.

These impacts, coupled with rising sea levels and more frequent extreme weather events, exacerbate food insecurity, particularly in vulnerable regions.

Impacts of climate change on food security include reduced crop yields, livestock losses, fisheries decline, increased food prices, increased risk of foodborne diseases, shifts in food systems and increased vulnerability of coastal communities.

The challenges of climate change on food security can be addressed through mitigation by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, through policies and actions that promote renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and land use practices.

They can also be addressed through adaptation by developing and implementing adaptation strategies, such as drought-resistant crops, improved water management, and diversification of agricultural practices to help build resilience to the impacts of climate change.

Global collaboration

Addressing the challenge of climate change on food security requires policy and investment that support research and development of new technologies, promote sustainable agricultural practices, and invest in infrastructure and social safety nets that can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security.

Further, agricultural experts point out that addressing climate change and food security requires international collaboration and the sharing of knowledge and best practices to support vulnerable countries.

The relationship between climate change, food production, and food security, therefore, needs little explanation.

However, geopolitics is a new and less obvious influence on food security.

Unfortunately, it may be the most pernicious one of all, say experts.

“Discussions on food security, and sustainable development more generally, often include references to the food-energy-water nexus, meaning that three of the resources most intimately linked to human health and well-being are deeply interrelated,” says Dr Scott Moore, a professor of political science and director of China Programmes and Strategic Initiatives at Penn Global University of Pennsylvania.  

Writing in an article in the latest issue of the International Institute of Sustainable Development (IISD) Earth Negotiations Bulletin, he says the future of the world’s food supply is likely to depend at least on another trilateral relationship: the one between climate change, food and geopolitics.

The article was written for Perry World House’s 2025 Conference, ‘Feeding a Climate Changed World’.

More frequent extreme weather, less predictable water supply, more crop disease, and other climate impacts are making crop production less predictable and contributing to spikes in food prices.  

However, most of the core inputs for agricultural production, including land, water, and nitrogen, are highly constrained and cannot be increased without incurring significant trade-offs, not least to the environment and biodiversity.

The significance of geopolitics on food security arises from a major turn in world affairs, from one in which major powers backed international institutions, free trade, and other elements of a broadly liberal world order to one marked by an emphasis on national sovereignty, great power rivalry, and large-scale warfare.

Scott says each of these manifestations of geopolitics carries harmful implications for food security and sustainability worldwide.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has created an unprecedented risk to the world’s food supply, with the belligerents accounting for nearly a third of global wheat production.

Though disaster has so far been averted thanks to the intervention of international organisations, the conflict has severely destabilised food supplies, especially in the Middle East and North Africa. Future large-scale conflicts could well see intensified weaponisation of crop exports.   

The resurgence of great power rivalry, meanwhile, is pushing countries to prioritise self-sufficiency in major crops, often at a high financial and environmental cost. China is perhaps the best example, notes Scott.  

“Food security, and especially food self-sufficiency, has long been a high priority for the Chinese government, reflecting in part a long and tragic history of famine and a perception that averting it is an important element of state legitimacy”.  

Strategic investments

Accordingly, China maintains large strategic reserves of key foodstuffs, including pork, and has set strict limits on the amount of land that can be taken out of cultivation.

The government also provides extensive policy support to the agricultural sector.  

China’s agricultural system is largely dominated by smallholder farmers with low efficiency and competitiveness, making the prioritisation of self-sufficiency a significant financial commitment of the government, which moreover exacerbates China’s exposure to water scarcity and other environmental challenges.

The acquisition of farmland and agribusiness resources by Chinese entities has further stoked tension in regions as varied as the US and Southwest and Southern Africa.  

Finally, the Chinese government also invests heavily in agricultural research and development, including in areas like genetically modified crops that have historically been dominated by foreign agribusiness firms, leading to considerable trade-related disputes, explains Scott.   

Perhaps most dangerous of all, food security and sustainability, he says, is the fragmentation of the global economic and trade system, such as recent moves by the US and other governments to impose tariffs in the agricultural sector.

Irrigation of food commodity markets in the post-Second World War period has played a significant role in reducing the incidence of famine. Integrated agricultural markets also help to buffer the impact of extreme weather and climate disruptions on food production.

“Even as the challenges posed by the food-climate-geopolitics nexus grow more acute, the safety net for global food security has become badly frayed. Demands on the world’s food system have been unsustainable for some time ,but were exacerbated by recent conflicts in the Middle East, Sudan, and elsewhere. The dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) by the Trump Administration threatens to plunge this already fragile system into complete chaos,” Scott warns.

He says the increasing salience of geopolitics for the world’s food system carries generally disconcerting implications.

Food supplies may be increasingly weaponised in both conflict and competition scenarios.

The risk may be especially high in less economically developed countries and regions.

It also implies that the world’s food system is likely to become increasingly fragmented, with potentially harmful consequences for affordability and resilience amidst climate and other shocks.

Against this bleak outlook, two areas stand out as priorities for investment.

One is the international institutions, like the World Food Programme (WFP), that act as a safety net for the poorest and most marginalised communities worldwide.  

A second priority is research, development and innovation in the food system.

Advances in synthetic biology, in particular, hold significant promise to help produce more nutritious food that might also be more resilient to climate and other disruptions.

In this current moment of extreme disruption and uncertainty, there is an opportunity to create a more sustainable global food system to produce more nutritious food resilient to extreme weather, demanding little if any additional water, land or other resources – a daunting challenge indeed.

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