Climate scientists call for equipment upgrade for better weather prediction
By Kepher Otieno, May 22, 2023It was 4pm and everyone was worried about the dramatic change in weather in Homa Bay County as dark clouds gather. For most of the day, traders had witnessed a sunny day, sweating through their caps as the searing heat descended on them. But as dusk approached, temperatures dropped.
For Millicent Atieno, a trader at Homa Bay Market, the realities of climate change have forced her to adjust her daily business routine. With the uncertainty of whether it will rain or not, traders like her have to adjust to the unfolding climate crisis in their quest to cope.
“We normally sell most of our goods in the open and so when it rains it means we have to adjust,’’ says Atieno
She isn’t alone. There are dozens of families and traders who are affected by climate change and forced to adopt survival mechanisms.
Josephine Obingo admits that climate change is felt both at the personal, community level and even a distance.
Obingo claims that most families rely on weather prediction patterns to adjust or cope with extreme weather conditions.
Reliable weather forecasts
But times, the weather forecasts reports have reportedly not been accurate to precision as many are left second guessing when it will rain and stop “There are situations when we have been told it will rain from this period to this period, but it ends up being the opposite,’’ She claims
This has made it cumbersome at some point for most farmers, business owners and tourists among others to plan effectively to re-adjust, especially in the absence of reliable weather forecasts.
This year, parts of Homa Bay County especially in Rachuonyo and Rangwe sub counties have been affected by floods due to the onset of heavy rains.
Floods have exposed some families to the risk of hunger. Their activities, too, have been disrupted. But now many are coping with the situation.
Some climate scientists in Nyanza admit that sometimes their forecast is not precise and so they have failed to correctly predict the intensity of rain.
According to Kisumu and Homa Bay County Director of Meteorology Paul Oloo, there are extreme situations, when their predictions are not accurate. “We rely on scientific predictions, but of course, there are matters beyond our human nature to fathom. They are acts of God,’’ claimed Oloo. He asserts, “During the current long period of rains, from March, April to May(MAM), we predict little rains of not more than 450-500 millimetres.’’
This year, the Mets have recorded in excess of 150 millimetres which is a lot more than what meteorologists predicted in Homabay County. “This is because of low skill of prediction the MAM due to unstable ocean or Lake conditions and worse again use old weather gadgets,’’ he explains Oloo hoped the month of short rains would be in October, November, and December; the rains will normalize because the direction of the temperature is good.
But he says their current weather instruments are not powerful enough to accurately project the severity of those extreme weather conditions. “The situation is aggravated by the use of old weather prediction gadgets, some of which are faulty and not very reliable in predictions,’’ he claims
The Climate scientists now want the County governments of the affected flood prone areas to spend big on shared climate super-computers.
The scientists asked the Counties to procure digital 3D-printed weather stations.
Homa Bay County Director of Climate Change Roy Odongo also says the collection of weather data has been one of the biggest challenges they face. “We are still relying on old data collection instruments, some of which are not producing accurate results,’’ says Odongo.