Why Ruto-Raila deal has rattled political elite

Raila Odinga last Friday asserted his dominance on Kenyan politics when he signed a power-sharing agreement with President William Ruto.
In a move unthinkable two years ago, Raila confounded political allies and foes alike by gripping a firm “handshake” with avowed adversary Ruto, the man he fought a bitterly contested and disputed presidential election in 2022.
Yet to keen observers, the political marriage is not a surprise, especially after the initial subtle handshake mid-last year. Then, Raila granted Ruto a soft-landing when he was under extreme pressure from popular Gen Z-led mass protests.
Ruto’s harsh economic policies contained in the Finance Bill, 2024 imposed on economically-battered citizens bred public unrest, which the youth seized on to shake his government, before he hastily withdrew it.
That’s when, to the consternation of his opposition top organs and millions of diehard followers, Raila offered a besieged Ruto a lifeline, helping him navigate ship out of a rough political storm to relative calm.
While Ruto and his beleaguered Kenya Kwanza administration gratefully accepted the generous life-saving jackets, his opposition domain was left in shock and disbelief that prevails to date.
It’s no secret that Raila is the doyen of opposition politics in Kenya around who the mass protest and populist anti-establishment movement revolves. However, Raila enjoys one advantage beyond all the Kenyan political cadres, his radical mien aside:
His uncanny ability to forge “handshakes”, consistently seeing him push his way to both opposition and government high tables.
That political agility is amply demonstrated in deals with Presidents Daniel arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta and now with his pre-2007 comrade-turned-political fiend Ruto, deals often crafted after disputed presidential elections.
Like wrestler Amalinze the Cat in Chinua Achebe’s ‘Things Fall Apart’, Raila’s back never touches the ground. In all the presidential elections he has contested, Raila and his followers always believe he won.
Even in his latest manoeuvres, grudgingly accepted by staunch loyalists and quietly spurned by grumbling allies, there is a feeling of de ja vu that perhaps Raila’s is a pragmatic move for nationhood other than for his own political relevance.
Wracked by negative ethnicity, corruption, political deceit, integrity, human rights abuses, social, electoral and economic injustices topped by youth unemployment…, Kenya is in need of redemption, national healing and reconciliation.
Raila-Ruto’s pact which has rattled the political class may not be the panacea of the ills facing Kenyans,. Details of the signed agreement address these issues, but will the deliver or merely pay them lip service?
The opposition must go back to the drawing board minus the “Godfather”. It would be unwise to merely dismiss Raila as captive to the whims of the ruling regime and all its trappings of power and largesse.
Raila is the most experienced politician in Kenya’s current political equation who keeps his cards close to his chest and knows when to play soft or hard tackles.
This was fait accompli vintage Raila; an “if you can’t beat them, join them” coup. He might just be the Trojan Horse, nay, the Prodigal Son that the opposition may need to achieve their cherished goal of unseating the tarnished incumbency.
Creating a new Azimio la Umoja without Raila is a tall order, leave alone mobilizing the Gen Z into a formidable political outfit for the 2027 elections. After all, ODM, which forged the new pact with Ruto’s UDA, is still the dominant opposition party.
The writer comments on national politics. – albertoleny@gmail.com