Why Ruto is having a field day as opposition in slumberland
By Rawlings Otieno, August 12, 2025With less than two years to the 2027 General Election, President William Ruto is reaping big from the confusion, lack of focus and a clear agenda from the opposition luminaries.
The opposition led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua of the Democracy for the Citizens Party, Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, People’s Liberation Party’s Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa (Democratic Action Party of Kenya) and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr Fred Matiang’i is yet to cobble a strategy to unseat Ruto.
The absence of Gachagua from the local political scene has also left the remaining quartet in disarray, leaving Ruto and his former sworn rival Raila Odinga having a field day.
Judicial petitions
Raila, who has closed ranks and promised to work with Ruto until the 2027 polls, seems to have left the opposition in limbo.
But even as Ruto is cobbling up a strategy, he has to surmount several key judicial petitions that are not only filed against him but also against some of his pet projects and programmes.
This is after some 13 Human Rights activists, including Kenya Bora Tuitakayo Citizens’ Association, moved to the High Court seeking Ruto’s removal through a public referendum, accusing him of incompetence, abuse of office and gross violation of the Constitution.
Although the opposition has been riding on the mantra and hype of ‘wantam’ a word coined from ‘one term’, they have not lived up to the expectations of a majority of their political supporters.
“We are part of this team and will walk this journey together to liberate this country. We’ll make whatever sacrifices necessary to make sure Ruto is a one-term president,” said Gachagua, who is on a two-month visit to the US.
However, Ruto has vowed that he will not be deterred by what he has termed as “incompetent, clueless and corrupt” people attempting to divide Kenyans along ethnic lines.
He has now devised a strategy that targets Raila’s strongholds of Nyanza, Western and Coast that have previously been ignored by successive regimes.
Stung by the power, creativity, resolve and commitment of Gen Z, Ruto went back to the drawing board on how best to onboard Nyanza and Western after his fallout with his Deputy Rigathi Gachagua.
Political pundits now argue that identifying a formidable candidate who captures the interests and aspirations of the majority of Kenyans is a key success factor and that such a candidate will need a killer instinct election-winning strategy, an equally agile running mate, grassroots infrastructure and resources.
Political analyst Dismas Mokua argues that the opposition is taking time to get their ducks in a row, a move that can make some of their supporters nervous given the critical path towards 2027.
“It is erroneous to suggest that the opposition is in slumberland. Identifying a formidable candidate who captures the interests and aspirations of the majority of Kenyans is a key success factor. This candidate will need a killer instinct election-winning strategy, an equally agile running mate, grassroots infrastructure and resources,” said Mokua.
He went on: “The opposition will have a fighting chance if they place policy alternatives on the table and crystallize the one-term conversation to a solid movement and pray that President Ruto’s signature policy interventions don’t bear fruit before the 2027 general elections.”
According to Mokua, the probability of having a Pentagon reincarnation ahead of 2027, made up of, among others, Ruto, Raila and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi will complicate the opposition’s game plan.
“It will be naive to write off President Ruto. He has demonstrated capacity and competence to swim against political turbulence,” said Mokua.
Mokua further argued that Gachagua is a double-edged sword.
“There is part of Kenya that finds his political style attractive, while another part of Kenya is turned off by his tribal laced politics and intention to use politics to settle personal scores. Gachagua stands accused of failure to offer policy alternatives to President Ruto’s policies. Sending President Ruto home is not a sufficient proposition for Kenyans asking the ‘so what’ question.”
Uphill task
Political commentator and High Court Advocate Martin Oloo argued that criticism of Ruto’ is informed by his failure to fulfil his promises
“The opposition is not about leaders like Gachagua and others. Ruto’s opposition is informed by his failure to fulfil his promises. It is informed by the determined youth and all those who feel excluded from the development agenda,” said Dr Oloo.
He went on: “Ruto has an uphill task to sell, yet a promissory narrative that is likely to be more convincing. He is in full swing to seek re-election,and his opposition is formed much as a leader is yet to be settled on. Tokenism notwithstanding, the ramped-up false empowerment programmes.”
Javas Bigambo opines that Ruto is intentional about delivering the commitments he made to the electorate, adding that the opposition needs a strategy that is solid and one that will not depend on Gachagua’s narrow interests.
“It is his scorecard that will power his campaign arguments. On the other hand, Gachagua’s political drive is fuelled by the bad taste in his mouth following his impeachment,” said Bigambo.
As it is presently, other opposition leaders are relying on Gachagua’s anti-Ruto energy and Gen-Z related issues. This presents an opposition that has no solid strategy, and each opposition leader is second-guessing his or her chances of flying the opposition flag in 2027.”