What Kenya should do to advance Raila’s AUC bid
By Suba Churchill, August 2, 2024On July 30, Kenya formally submitted Raila Odinga’s application for the position of chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) that becomes vacant in February 2025, when Moussa Faki’s second term ends.
After lodging the papers, Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Singo’ei proceeded to extol Odinga’s pan-Africanist credentials and other competencies. Odinga has highlighted his vision for the AUC, pledging to focus on integrating Africans through infrastructure development; transforming and enhancing intra-African trade; and fostering financial independence and gender equity.
Other themes that Odinga plans to push are agricultural transformation, climate action, peace and security, and youth empowerment.
As recently as July 21, it was doubtful whether Odinga would submit his application, saying at the peak of countrywide anti-government protests: “I am ready to forgo my AUC ambitions for the sake of country if this is being used to manipulate me at the expense of the quest for a better and stable country.”
But all that is now water under the bridge. Odinga is not just an aspirant seeking to lead the largest continental body, but is the government candidate for the AUC post. Barring any other unforeseen circumstances, he will be on the ballot for the position in 2025, and could be described as a leading contender for the seat, having received the support of critical member states of the East African Community bloc, including Uganda, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, and Burundi.
In March, the AU Executive Council ratified a decision to have Eastern Africa produce the next chairperson.
There have been mixed signals from Tanzania, with claims the second-largest EAC member state could be planning to field its own candidate. There is no certainty as to whether the latest entrant in the ever-growing EAC, Somalia, will field a candidate. The country’s former foreign affairs minister, Fawzia Yusuf Adam, declared her interest, only to claim later that she had been pressured by her own government to step down in favour of the Kenyan candidate.
Djibouti will field Mahamoud Youssouf, and Seychelles could also follow suit, further complicating the math for Odinga’s prospects.
Suffice to say that it’s going to be a tough race after the August deadline for submitting applications. In such a competitive contest, contending countries may have to go beyond the individual capabilities of their candidates.
But Kenya can still pull it off. Being strategic in this context is about deciding what the country wants to achieve and planning a series of actions with commensurate resources to achieve the set target. There is no denying that, comparatively speaking, Kenya continues to play a significant and increasing role as an ‘anchor’ state in the Eastern and Central Africa regions, providing leadership and supporting stability among its neighbours. This is happening despite its own domestic governance challenges, like the recent countrywide protests that almost brought the government to its knees. While such popular expressions of democratic will have been cited by some naysayers within and outside the country to undermine Kenya’s candidacy for the AUC leadership, the actions are perceived positively as testimony of Kenya’s growing democracy by leaders and citizens alike in the neighbourhood, always able to bounce back and emerge stronger, to register tremendous economic and political growth.
This is the time for Kenya to leverage its traditional dominance and strategic position and strengthen its role as an anchor state by building on the noble agenda ably articulated by her candidate, particularly on continental integration, economic transformation and enhancing intra-African trade.
Kenya can achieve this by immediately ratifying and accelerating the implementation of the African Union Protocol to the treaty relating to the free movement of peoplet, in support of the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area.
— The writer is the Executive Director of the Kenya National Civil Society Centre;
suba_churchill@yahoo.com