President William Ruto’s visit to the Luo Nyanza has confirmed one thing about Kenyan politics –  ethnicity reigns supreme.

The visit has also proved that Raila Odinga retains his traditional strong influence in the peculiar national politics that has now been extended to the continental stage.

While he was not with Ruto during the whirlwind tour, the big crowds that welcomed him attested to Raila’s political power in his strongholds.

The visit was a “big thank you” to Raila for saving Ruto’s government from the brink of collapse after the Gen Z protests. It also provided an opportunity for Ruto to test the water in the political hotbed that is Luo Nyanza.

A few days earlier, Ruto consummated an uncharacteristic reunion with his bitter rival turned ally, inviting three East African Community heads of state to endorse Raila for the African Union Commission chairperson’s seat.

This means Raila has taken a sabbatical from national politics (with close allies in key Cabinet positions) to focus on the continental job, hence his absence in the visit. The Cabinet posts must have been sweet music to the ears of the raucous crowds that greeted Ruto.

His presence was widely felt during the tour as staunchly pro-Odinga supporters gave Ruto a rousing welcome, obviously with the Opposition doyen’s tacit blessings.

Raila’s fiercest critics in Ruto’s camp, including Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Majority Leader Kimani Ichungwa from the Mt Kenya region, changed tune to chant praise choruses, illustrating the ethnic factor or “tribalism” in Kenyan politics.

Tribalism rears its ugly head every election cycle, including during the fiercely and closely contested and disputed 2022 presidential election that pitted Raila against Ruto.

The tribal bigotry culminated in early 2023 mass protests that plunged the country into political and economic turmoil that persists to date.

The shrewd and wise politician that he is, Raila read the national mood well after that period of uncertainty that spelled big trouble for Ruto’s government and appropriately changed tact.

Rumours of a potential “handshake” started swirling around. Raila probably also consulted close advisers nationally and across the continent, such as retired Nigerian President and respected African elder statesman Olusegun Obasanjo.

In 2021, I interviewed Obasanjo on a different subject but he expressed his pleasure with the surprise 2018 handshake between then President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila, saying it was good for Kenya’s nationhood.

Now we have a firm handshake by any other name gripping Raila and Ruto, who calls it a bond of national unity for Kenyans of all ethnic communities and regions.

Whether this is just a statement of convenience for political expediency or a genuine desire to close a dark chapter of negative ethnicity, injustices, human rights violations, corruption, poverty and unemployment, remains to be seen.

Gen Z protesters, who bear the brunt of these grievances, and the Opposition, will need to accept that for now, they are outmanoeuvered by Raila’s political agility and acumen some may perceive as selfish opportunism or betrayal.

Nevertheless, it would probably be advisable to borrow some lessons or quietly seek Raila’s counsel as they strategise for 2027. His influence may have been shaken, but it is not diminished, certainly not in the Opposition.

   

The Gen Z protests made remarkable gains for people power indelibly inscribed in the history of the liberation struggle in Kenya, just as much as Raila.

He is the Trojan Horse they need.

— The writer comments on national affairs-