Leadership gap at IEBC brewing crisis

With only two years, seven months left to the August 2027 polls, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is yet to be constituted, creating a recipe for chaos and political instability in the next General Election.

Political analysts and observers are warning that the absence of the electoral commissioners with barely less than two years and seven months to the election is a disaster in the making and brewing of a constitutional crisis.

Analysts have accused President William Ruto administration of ‘state-choreographed delay tactics’ and manipulation as legal and political battles continue to hamper the reconstitution of the electoral commission.

“Whoever is delaying the reconstitution of IEBC is for sure setting up the country for chaos in 2027. Somebody somewhere is likely trying to micro-manage the 2027 by delaying to reconstitute the electoral agency,” Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi says.

Boundary disputes

The new electoral commissioners were to be recruited by a Selection Panel that emanated from the National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) following street protests in 2023. However, despite President Ruto signing the IEBC Amendment Bill 2024  into law July last year, no progress has been made setting the stage for a constitutional crisis.

The law paved the way for reconstituting the commission, a crucial step toward preparing for the 2027 General Election. Lack of commissioners is blocking key electoral processes and activities which if not fixed in time could highly paralyse the operations of the 2027 polls.

PD Wikendi has established that with only two years and seven months to the polls, if the commission was fully constituted, they would have determined whether a new voter register is needed or not.  The commissioners would provide policy direction and oversee the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) and that elections that were anticipated to occur by this point would have been conducted.

An insider in the commission who sought anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, confided in PD Wikendi that capacity building for staff would have been conducted especially for boundaries delimitation, by-elections and voter registration.

“By now the preparations for the 2027 polls should have commenced including drafting budgets for the General Election, by-elections, boundaries delimitation, and CVR,” the well placed source said.

In addition, as presently constituted, the commission cannot recruit new staff to fill in the vacancies caused by retirements and natural attrition as well as capacity building for new staff. 

Echoing the IEBC official’s concerns, Mwangangi says the absence of IEBC commissioners has denied many people in constituencies and wards the right of representation.  Besides, numerous boundaries disputes between constituencies, wards and counties have remained unresolved due to the absence of the electoral agency.  “We are already behind schedule on the issue of civic education because there is neither strategy nor budget to embark on the exercise meant to educate people on the kind of leaders they should elect. I believe all this is a deliberate strategy by those in power in a bid to hold onto power,” says Mwangangi.

At the centre of the impasse’ is a disagreement within the opposition Azimio la Umoja Coalition over the coalition’s representative in the selection panel, which is responsible for nominating commissioners.  In August last year, Azimio, appointed Augustus Muli as its representative to the panel, however some dissatisfied members of the coalition mainly from the Kalonzo Musyoka’s backyard went to court seeking Muli’s nullification.

Process hit a roadblock

 According to Kalonzo’s faction, Muli’s appointment did not meet the required constitutional threshold, as his National Liberal Party (NLP) has no representative in Parliament, a move that the court upheld.  However, in October, the High Court ordered Azimio to appoint a new representative, a directive that paved the appointment of Koki Muli, a close ally of Kalonzo.  Aggrieved by the court’s decision, Augustus Muli went back to court to appeal the directive, which has further delayed the constitution of the panel.

Kalonzo and his lieutenants claimed that Augustine Muli is deliberately delaying the IEBC Selection Panel process knowing full well that he does not meet the criteria on all levels.

 “It is preposterous that thousands of Kenyans are today unrepresented in Parliament and at the County Assemblies because of an individual’s vested interests in the 2027 elections, which he wishes to manipulate through a user-friendly IEBC,” claimed Kalonzo.

Without providing any evidence, Kalonzo explained that the long-drawn-out and unnecessary process can however be curtailed as the republic is bigger than one man. The Electoral agency’s operations including by-elections, boundary review and major procurements have been heavily impacted by the lack of commissioners.

 “We, therefore, say in a loud and clear voice: Mr Ruto, do the honourable thing and instruct your proxy to withdraw his court cases at the High Court and Court of Appeal,” Kalonzo said.

 Yesterday, ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna said there are some constituencies that have gone without representation for months.

Prolong tenure

“We are concerned as a party. We have constituencies that have gone without representation for months including some previously held by our members that have pending by elections. We need the courts to quickly resolve the disputes surrounding the membership of the panel to pick commissioners to correct this situation,” said Sifuna.

 Political analyst Javas Bigambo however contends that the delay in fully reconstituting IEBC now remains a toy in the hands of the leading political elites.

“Political goodwill is deficient on both sides. While the matter is actively in court, urgency has not been applied to the significance of the matter, hence the easy conclusion that the delays are deliberately calculated and conscious,” said Bigambo. Political analyst Martins Andati argued that the delay in the reconstitution of the electoral agency could be a plot for the incumbents to prolong their tenure beyond the constitutional timeframe.

According to Andati, there is no political goodwill to reconstitute the commission after the terms of former Chairman Wafula Chebukati, Boya Molu and Prof Abdi Guliye came to an end after serving for six years. The Vice Chair Juliana Cherera, Justus Nyang’aya and Francis Wanderi resigned. Irene Masit was hounded out of office through a tribunal.