How EPRA could price fuel ahead of June-July review cycle
By Ndiritu Wanjiru, June 3, 2026As pump prices move to new lows, the new EPRA pricing formula for June–July remains unclear, though it’s certainly cheaper. While pump prices keep dropping, the new fuel pricing formula from EPRA for June–July is far from clear, but, for sure, it is cheaper.
Like many others, Kenyan drivers might not see the full benefit of the global drop in fuel prices during the next fuel price review on June 14, 2026, despite assurances earlier this week by government officials that pump prices would drop.
This follows the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) adjusting the fuel pricing formula for the pricing cycle of June to July for local pump prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene.
The development will likely bring a lot of questions from consumers, particularly given that a few days ago, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi and President William Ruto suggested that the retail prices of the various fuels would improve after a sharp fall in oil prices in the world markets.
Oil prices have been dropping across the globe in the past few months. The international benchmark for oil prices, Brent, dropped some 20 per cent in May 2026 and kept declining through June, bringing hopes that Kenyan oil prices would drop soon.
But EPRA’s new pricing system seems to be going to stymie the transfer of these lower international prices to the local pumps.
The new formula will be based on the average international prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene in April, 2026 to calculate the cost of imported fuel cargoes from May 10 to May 31, 2026. Cargoes received from June 1-9, 2026 will be charged according to the average worldwide fuel cost for May 2026.
In the past, the average price of April would have applied to cargoes delivered between May 1 and May 14, and the average price of May would have applied to cargoes delivered between May 15 and May 31, 2026.
The change has the effect of delaying the effect that cheaper international fuel prices have on the pump price for consumers, so a less noticeable difference may not occur until later on the pump.
APRA’s clarification
EPRA clarified the adjustments made to the formula, excluding the international price of fuel.
The pricing formula applies to super petrol, kerosene and automotive diesel and comprises transporting petroleum products from the secondary storage depot to the retail dispensing site, the retail margin corresponding to investments required at the benchmark retail dispensing site and the retail margin corresponding to the operating costs at the benchmark retail dispensing site, the regulator said.
The new formula will be designed to match local importation and distribution costs. But industry watchers say that it could have a dampening effect on the immediate effect of global price declines on Kenyan consumers.
Motorists, businesses and households hoping for relief from high fuel costs will be watching closely for some relief in the upcoming review on June 15. The new pricing system indicates that the cut in pump prices would not be as profound as was hoped, since international oil prices have also fallen.
Govt assurance
The scenario has made EPRA’s pricing model come under a microscope, especially given the high hopes that were pinned on Kenyans’ faces when President Ruto and CS Wandayi stated that a decline in global oil prices would inevitably lead to decreases in fuel pricing in Kenya.
Speaking in Migori on Friday, May 29, 2026, during the Matatu and Bodaboda sector empowerment event, Wandayi said that although global oil prices have risen in recent months, there are signs that international market pressures could soon ease.
“Changes in demand patterns and improved supply routines are gradually stabilising international markets,” Wandayi said.
While cautioning that the global situation remains unpredictable, he expressed optimism that Kenyans would progressively begin to feel the benefits once international market conditions improve further.