Explainer: How EPRA’s new kerosene prices could make flights more expensive
By Aloys Michael, May 20, 2026A recent fuel price revision by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) has caused concerns across the transport sector, and the ripple effects may soon be felt far above the tarmac.
While most attention has focused on fuel used by matatus and private motorists, the increase in kerosene prices carries a quieter but potentially more far-reaching consequence: pressure on airline operating costs, which could translate into higher ticket prices.
In its latest monthly pricing cycle, EPRA adjusted pump prices in a mixed direction. Diesel recorded a modest reduction, offering some relief to freight and public transport operators.
However, kerosene, closely linked to aviation fuel production, rose significantly, reflecting shifts in global oil benchmarks and domestic pricing formulas.
The immediate impact was visible on the roads, with transport disruptions already reported in parts of the country following cost-related tensions.
But the bigger story may be in how kerosene feeds into the aviation fuel supply chain.
Why kerosene matters to aviation
Commercial aircraft do not run on petrol or diesel. Instead, they rely on Jet A-1 fuel, a highly refined form of kerosene engineered specifically for aviation use.
This means that when kerosene prices rise, even at the retail or wholesale level, there is often upward pressure on jet fuel production costs.
Jet fuel is derived through a refining process that isolates and upgrades kerosene fractions from crude oil.
While aviation-grade fuel is subject to additional treatment and strict international specifications, its underlying cost base is still tied to the broader kerosene market.
In practical terms, refiners and suppliers often adjust jet fuel pricing in response to movements in kerosene and global crude oil prices.
Airlines then absorb those changes as part of their fuel procurement costs, typically their largest single operational expense.
Aviation fuel is not a commodity airlines can easily substitute or avoid. Modern commercial aircraft rely exclusively on Jet A-1 due to its carefully engineered properties.
It remains stable under extreme conditions, including the freezing temperatures encountered at cruising altitudes of around 35,000 feet, where outside air can drop below -50°C.
Its low freezing point and high flash point make it safe for both high-altitude flight and ground handling. It is also designed to burn efficiently and predictably inside jet engines, ensuring consistent thrust and engine reliability over long distances.
Because of these technical requirements, global aviation depends heavily on a single fuel standard, leaving airlines highly exposed to fluctuations in its input costs.
How higher fuel costs reach passengers
When jet fuel becomes more expensive, airlines typically face three options: absorb the costs, reduce operational expenses elsewhere, or pass them on to consumers.
In competitive markets, especially in regions where margins are already tight, fare adjustments are often the most immediate response.
Fuel can account for 20–40 per cent of an airline’s total operating cost, depending on route structure and efficiency. Even small increases in input prices can therefore have outsized effects on profitability.
For carriers operating in and out of Kenya, sustained increases in jet fuel costs can lead to higher ticket prices, fuel surcharges, or reduced promotional fares on certain routes.
The impact is not limited to passengers alone. Higher airfares can affect tourism demand, business travel budgets, and cargo costs.
This, in turn, can influence the price of imported goods and the competitiveness of export logistics.
Kenya’s aviation sector is particularly sensitive to fuel price movements because much of its fuel is priced against international benchmarks, even when local regulatory adjustments, such as those made by EPRA, affect domestic cost structures.