The race to zero tailpipe emissions globally has started in earnest, and Africa will be left as the only continent engulfed in exhaust fumes in barely a decade.

Already, the European Union (EU) has set a deadline of 2035 by which sale of all petrol and diesel vehicles must end in its territory.

The US has started the process of eliminating petrol and diesel fuel use in their cars. California, the largest motor vehicle market in the US, has announced that all vehicles on its roads must produce zero tailpipe emissions by the year 2035.

This is now a wave sweeping through the developed world. Norway has announced zero tailpipe emissions from motor vehicles by 2025. Other countries include Britain, Singapore and Israel which have banned tailpipe emissions from 2030.

These very far-reaching developments are barely a decade away, and will have disastrous effects on Kenya and Africa.

What is Kenya doing towards development of clean energy to align with the ongoing zero emissions push going on in the world?

The key to this is electric cars. The drive to manufacture electric cars has caught fire in the US and Europe. Electric car manufacturers such as Tesla of the US are overwhelmed by orders.

Where is Kenya’s timebound comprehensive policy and programme for zero tailpipe emissions? Where is Kenya’s policy and programme for development of cheap and reliable electricity to power vehicles in the coming decade across the country?

Kenya cannot ignore these developments which are being pushed at full speed in the developed world. The ramifications of these developments will affect Kenya and Africa, severely going forward.

Once these countries phase out the sale of petrol and diesel cars there, there will be millions of secondhand vehicles powered by fossil fuels that will pile up in yards across those regions. These vehicles will be dumped—literally dumped— in Africa.

Once this dumping starts, the elite of African countries will have little motivation to work towards zero tailpipe emissions because they will now be able to drive the most prestigious vehicles at dirt-cheap prices.

And because most petrol and diesel cars will be in Africa, affordable to a wide cross section of income earners, the continent will become the biggest market for petrol and diesel.  Lacking any other significant markets, the producers of oil will literally dump petrol and diesel in Africa. Once this vicious cycle takes hold, it will take ages to break the mould.

So, as the rest of the world starts curing their environment from years of pollution due to exhaust emissions, Kenya, and Africa, will be the epicentre of pollution.

Worse, this will be happening at a time the continent is facing increasing challenges to the environment from other unforgiving trends like climate change. Africa does not have the resources to tackle these growing environmental challenges.

A further complication will be the availability of spare parts for the dumped cars. As manufacturers stop making petrol and diesel cars, it means that all those vehicles on roads in Africa will face a major challenge in getting spare parts.

Expect a continent littered with huge junkyards as vehicles are mothballed because the owners cannot get spare parts.

Kenya has to start synchronizing its own environmental programmes with what is happening globally. It is worrying that the Ministry of Environment in Kenya remains almost as an afterthought. It needs to be one of the best-resourced and powerful ministries to drive the agenda of clean energy. The incoming government must treat this matter with utmost urgency.

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