Why Raila will not save Ruto in 2027 polls
By Samuel Kariuki, July 24, 2025Shifting political trends in Kenya are presenting a complex scenario for presidential aspirants in the 2027 general election, with traditional tribal voting patterns giving way to interest-based coalitions and generational change.
The emergence of younger voters who reject ethnic politics threatens to disrupt the familiar patterns that veteran politicians have long exploited.
Political analysts predict Kenyans will increasingly vote based on interests rather than tribal loyalty.
Policy and legal expert Kiragu Wachira argues that voters are moving beyond seeking “our person” toward leaders who can negotiate effectively with like-minded counterparts.
“When you have a multicultural setup in a community that is multiethnic, people would coalesce faster as ethnic groups, and then they can negotiate with the other ethnic groups for particular political outcomes,” Wachira explained.
“Voters are focusing more on coalescing as a community, then going to the negotiating table with others.”
This shift has created new swing regions, particularly Western Kenya, where ODM leader Raila Odinga’s traditional stronghold is weakening.
The broad-based government arrangement between Raila and President William Ruto has complicated regional loyalties, with Wachira noting that “Raila has lost part of his political support, especially in the Western and Central regions”.
The Western region’s large population and diaspora make it a critical battleground.
Fresh strategies
“The Western region is becoming a very critical swing vote area because they have a sizable population, both within the region and the Kenyan diaspora,” Wachira observed.
“If Ruto loses that bloc, then it becomes very difficult for him to cover that loss.”
Similarly, the Maasai community, traditionally aligned with Raila, represents over a million votes that both the government and the opposition are courting intensively.
The youth demographic presents the most significant wildcard for 2027.
Wachira emphasised that capturing Gen Z votes requires fresh strategies, as “a good part of the younger generation is [refusing] to just follow a political ideology or being herded around a particular tribe. They are more likely to vote where they will feel secure and safe for themselves and their future”.
However, other analysts disagree on whether tribal politics truly exists.
Prof Macharia Munene disputes the concept entirely, citing historical examples such as Mwai Kibaki’s 2002 victory and voters’ rejection of Uhuru Kenyatta’s preferred candidate in 2022.
“Voting along tribal lines is a myth that people keep on pandering. People vote for the best candidate they know how,” Macharia stated.
He describes Gen Z as “Kibaki children” who were educated to “read, think and ask questions”, making them difficult for any leader to capture.
“So far, their interests do not seem to be in Ruto’s interest,” he noted, while cautioning against assuming their voting intentions: “Right now, it’s difficult to say who they will vote for, but it appears as if Ruto will have a little problem.”
Competing perspectives
Political analyst Herman Manyora offers a contrasting view, maintaining that ethnic mobilisation persists despite generational changes.
“Kenyans have not moved away from ethnic orientation in politics,” Manyora argued, though he acknowledges Gen Z’s disruptive potential.
“Gen Z is the new voting demography that will defy tribe. If anybody doesn’t focus on this young generation, at whatever level, from MCA to President, they will be in for a big shock,” Manyora stated.
“Gen Z is not an age. It’s an idea and new thinking which is likely to influence people who traditionally would be voting on tribal lines, even in big communities.”
Coastal dynamics
Manyora predicts that traditional political endorsements may lose their power: “If Raila tells people to vote for Ruto, we expect they will vote for Ruto. But just like the rest of the country, there is a segment of society, the Gen Z, which again, will defy the directive.”
The Coast region presents another intriguing dimension. Historically silent politically but supportive of Raila, the area may shift if he continues backing Ruto.
Manyora explained the coastal political psychology: “There is something that defines coastal voters. They always like defiant leaders because of their history. That’s why Raila has always had a field day.”
“Since he has joined the government side, he may not be as exciting to the coastal group as he was before, and that will leave the Coast open and therefore a battleground for vote hunting,” he added.